@Seal Wolf—In practice, it’s always about winning. This is the clearest judgment: it’s not that $76,000 must be held no matter what, but that the market is likely to first sweep the liquidity below $76,000, and only then decide the real direction. For $BTC , breaking below isn’t what’s scary—the scary part is failing to reclaim it after breaking. If it stabs down and then moves back into the range, that’s when he would be willing to reconsider the long positions. Conversely, if the daily chart also effectively loses $74,000, then the originally bullish outlook that had been extending toward October needs to be re-evaluated.

The reason he didn’t directly label this round of decline as a one-way shift into a full bear market is that, even though the external environment is somewhat bearish, the coin price hasn’t broken down in a way that matches the strength of the news. Oil prices are high, inflation and expectations of further rate hikes are heating up, the situation in the Middle East keeps fluctuating—plus some macro data is weak. Over the past week, BTC has broadly retreated from the $81,000–$82,000 area down to $76,000–$77,000. The drop hasn’t gotten out of control. His view is that the market may have already priced in part of the negative news in advance, and at least for now there’s no sign of panic selling. As for the September rate decision, personally he leans toward the idea that the Fed will neither raise nor cut rates—but this is only macro speculation; it can’t replace confirmation from the actual price action.

First, look at BTC’s structure. He interprets the four-hour timeframe as a ranging box around $76,000 to $81,000: two successive highs near $81,000 appeared on top, then price later tapped around $82,000; on the downside, it has already retested the $76,000 area twice. With this approximately symmetrical structure, during the third downward probe the market may deliberately pierce the prior low, flushing out both long stop-losses and short-selling entries. That’s why he would rather wait for a wick to form around $75,000 to $75,500, then see it reclaim $76,000, and observe whether it can stabilize within the range—rather than catching a falling knife immediately after the first break.

If the market doesn’t give a chance to dip, another plan is to wait until price moves back above $78,000 and holds, then consider going long along with the repair. The key isn’t any single bullish candle; it’s whether the move can be defended after the breakout, and whether the pullback forms higher highs and higher lows. In the later part of the livestream, BTC rebounded to near $79,900; he still emphasized that the quality of the pullback matters more than chasing. On the short term, $77,500 to $78,000 can be treated as the battleground for bulls and bears. When price is repeatedly crossing back and forth inside the range, frequently flipping positions easily turns into working for trading fees.

He also reviewed his mistakes: earlier he went long near $78,500, then stopped out around $77,500, losing about 1,000 points. Even though that position was still very far from liquidation, he chose to exit because if the trade logic doesn’t play out as expected, how far away liquidation is doesn’t mean the position should be hard-held. More importantly, when sharing trades publicly, you can’t only show the result of “holding through and making it come back”; you must account for the volatility that followers might have to endure. If the account only leaves a safe buffer of $6,000 to $8,000 against BTC, and you add after the market moves 2,000–3,000 points the wrong way, it’s often not about averaging down—it’s pushing yourself closer to liquidation.

Now look at $ETH. He believes ETH in this move is more resilient than BTC. The $2,400 area has shown support multiple times, but $2,450 is still the most practical two-way switch. If ETH breaks down below $2,450 and then fails to rebound, you can interpret it as bearish continuation. If it returns above and holds, then longs would have the conditions to look for $2,480, and even the pressure zone from $2,500 to $2,530. For more cautious dip-buys, the area below $2,400 and the $2,380 to $2,350 region offers better value. In the later part of the livestream, he also gave a shorter-term observation: if a pullback to $2,430 doesn’t make new lows, you can try to bet on a rebound to $2,480. Once $2,430 is lost, this rebound plan should be downgraded. No matter bulls or bears, he doesn’t agree with emotionally chasing shorts near $2,420.

$BNB is one of the few altcoin directions where he actually gives an action plan. He thinks chasing longs near $745 is too high; a more reasonable observation zone is around $720. In the later part of the livestream, after the price continued to fall, he attempted to go long in the $708 to $700 area, with the rebound initially targeting $720 to $725. But this plan doesn’t mean altcoins, in general, are broadly “buy-the-bottom” opportunities. He repeatedly reminds people that when BTC and ETH are both in a pullback phase, the tolerance for altcoin long positions is lowest; only when the two major mainstream coins stabilize in a range at relatively high levels is it more likely that funds overflow. If you really want to pick altcoins in a weak environment, you should prioritize relatively stronger names—not coins that have already fallen the weakest.

The most important thing to remember here isn’t “$76,000 must hold,” but the confirmation sequence: first, see whether the prior low gets swept; then see whether price can reclaim $76,000. If it repairs directly, then wait for $78,000 to stabilize. ETH does bidirectional confirmation around $2,450, and BNB is handled strictly according to its own entry zone and stop-loss discipline. Direction can be guessed, but position sizing must obey the invalidation conditions. Are you more inclined to expect BTC to jab near $75,000 first and then rebound, or has it already completed a stage of bottoming above $76,000?

The above is a summary of livestream viewpoints and does not constitute investment advice. Market volatility is high—control your position size, set proper stop-losses, and take full responsibility for your own gains and losses.