Data as of: early on Friday, September 11, 2026
Tonight, the U.S. August CPI will be released (08:30 ET), which is the biggest potential volatility driver in the near term.
1. Price and short-term trend
Current price about $76,650–$76,800. The 24-hour drop is about -1.8% to -2.1%, and the intraday range is about $76,450–$78,570. Spot trading volume is about $30.0–$35.6 billion, roughly in line with the ~30-day average; no panic-style surge in volume is observed. Over the past 7 days, it is about -3.5% to -5.6%, and over the past month it is still about +20%.
Short-term outlook: ranging with a bearish bias. After rallying to around $82k from late August to September 3, price has been declining consecutively. A trend reversal has not been confirmed yet, but short-term aggressive buying remains weak.
Support: 76,000–76,500 (today’s low zone); then down to 74,000–75,000.
Resistance: 78,000–78,500; then above 80,000.
Indicators: daily RSI around 48–54, neutral but slightly weak; MACD from multiple sources shows histogram turning negative or weakening; price is still clearly above the 50-day/200-day moving averages (around 69,900–70,400), and the medium-term structure has not been broken.
Current price is around $2,437–$2,450, down about -0.7% to -1.2% over 24 hours. It’s relatively resistant to downside versus BTC. Trading volume is about $15.2–$16.7 billion. Over the past 7 days, it’s down about -1.3% to -2.6%; over the past month, it still shows a clear rebound.
Short-term view: a choppy consolidation with relative downside resistance.
Support: 2,410–2,430, then down to 2,350–2,370.
Resistance: 2,480–2,520; then 2,540–2,560.
Indicators: RSI around 59, slightly stronger than BTC; MACD is weak; price is also above the 50-day/200-day moving averages (around 2,050–2,150).
2. Market sentiment and liquidity
Funding rate: BTC perpetuals are +0.003% to +0.01% per 8 hours; ETH is near zero to slightly positive—longs are paying a little, but it hasn’t reached an extremely crowded level.
Long/short ratio: mainstream exchange accounts have longs around 55%–62%, bullish but not extreme. Opening volume has recently fallen from highs, and leverage has been reduced.
ETFs: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen continuous net outflows from Sep 8–9 (about -470k and -$120 million). As of now in September, they are still net inflowing at roughly the $600 million scale. Ethereum ETFs have recorded small net inflow recently; sources are not fully consistent with Sep 10 data, so it’s not advisable to characterize it definitively on a single day.
Sentiment: the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell from about 69 yesterday to about 56, dropping from “greed” to neutral/greedy. Overall: risk appetite is cooling, but it’s not panic-selling. No single whale dump requiring special emphasis; liquidations are mainly causing small losses to longs.
3. Important news and macro impact
US PPI year-over-year is 5.4%, higher than expected—rate-hike pricing heats up, and BTC/ETH both give back gains in sync. Both are short-term negatives; rate-sensitive assets face pressure.
Tonight’s US Aug CPI and next week’s Sep 15–16 FOMC. The probability of a 25bp hike is roughly 60%–70% (PPI-driven, with significant discrepancies across sources). If CPI again comes in above expectations, it could trigger a second probe of support; if it clearly cools, short covering could be a first look at 78,000/2,500.
The central bank raises rates, oil prices break above $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield is nearing 4.94%, and the US dollar index is around 99. With a global tightening narrative combined with rising energy prices, risk assets are being pressured; BTC and ETH are moving in tandem with a weakening US stock market.
Geopolitics and oil prices (reports on shipping conflicts related to the US and Iran, etc.) are pushing up inflation expectations, strengthening the “another rate hike” trade, which is indirectly bearish for crypto.
Macro takeaways: the main conflict right now is “sticky inflation vs. whether the Fed will hike rates on Sep 16,” not on-chain narrative. Before CPI lands, the risk/reward for direction-based trading is relatively low.
4. Trading suggestions
BTC
Short term (1–3 days): wait and see. After the CPI, choose a direction.
Medium term (1–2 weeks): the structure is still above the medium-term moving averages. The bias is to “observe whether it can hold 74,000–75,000 after a pullback”; until it breaks, don’t treat it as a bear market.
Key levels: stop-loss reference below 75,800 (short term) / 73,800 (medium term); add positions to watch for stabilization at 74,000–75,200; reduce/take profit on rebounds to 78,300–80,000.
ETH
Short term: stay sidelined or use light hedges; don’t chase shorts. Relative strength is slightly better, but it’s still hard for it to act independently from BTC.
Medium term: follow BTC; as long as it holds 2,350, it’s still viewed as consolidation after August’s rebound.
Key levels: stop-loss at 2,395 (short term) / 2,340 (medium term); add positions at 2,350–2,380; reduce positions at 2,500–2,540.
The above is for personal analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is extremely volatile—strictly control position sizing and risk. The CPI and FOMC window contents may feature conflicting data and false breakouts, so an all-in one-direction position is not appropriate.