Oil prices are hitting headlines again—WTI has broken through $100 per barrel, Brent has touched $105, and this is the first time since July that it’s gotten this wild.
The reason isn’t complicated: the conflict between the US and Iran has been going for seven months with no clear end in sight. Trump says it could end after the midterm elections, but then he turns around and warns that Pickaxe Mountain might be bombed. Even more troublesome is that the Houthis are nearly taking over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia’s August production drops to 6.23 million barrels per day—the lowest since 1990—and exports have been cut by a third. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—the two lifelines—suddenly in trouble, oil prices rising is at least honest.
This has a significant impact on crypto too. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury has climbed to 4.9%, a new high since November 2023. Silver actually fell about 3% first—so the market is already pricing in a stagflation storyline. Risk assets like $ETH ($BTC $ETH ) won’t face small short-term liquidity pressure, and $SOL is likely to wobble along.
My take: the geopolitical premium arrives fast and disappears just as fast. In the short term, $BTC is very likely to get rubbed around by macro sentiment. But don’t forget the old script—when the fiat world gets messier, the narrative of a hard cap at 21 million gets even sweeter. In the indecisive phase of “go short now, go long later,” managing position size is more reliable than trying to guess the direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #原油 #宏观 #地缘政治
The reason isn’t complicated: the conflict between the US and Iran has been going for seven months with no clear end in sight. Trump says it could end after the midterm elections, but then he turns around and warns that Pickaxe Mountain might be bombed. Even more troublesome is that the Houthis are nearly taking over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia’s August production drops to 6.23 million barrels per day—the lowest since 1990—and exports have been cut by a third. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—the two lifelines—suddenly in trouble, oil prices rising is at least honest.
This has a significant impact on crypto too. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury has climbed to 4.9%, a new high since November 2023. Silver actually fell about 3% first—so the market is already pricing in a stagflation storyline. Risk assets like $ETH ($BTC $ETH ) won’t face small short-term liquidity pressure, and $SOL is likely to wobble along.
My take: the geopolitical premium arrives fast and disappears just as fast. In the short term, $BTC is very likely to get rubbed around by macro sentiment. But don’t forget the old script—when the fiat world gets messier, the narrative of a hard cap at 21 million gets even sweeter. In the indecisive phase of “go short now, go long later,” managing position size is more reliable than trying to guess the direction.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #原油 #宏观 #地缘政治