The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the United States rises to 1.774 million—this figure is more important than most people think.
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First, distinguish between the two numbers. Initial claims are for people who are filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continued claims are for people who have already received unemployment benefits once and are still receiving them. The former reflects whether layoffs have suddenly increased. The latter reflects how long it takes these people to find their next job. When continued claims trend upward, it means finding a new job is getting harder.
This is where the real trouble lies. If it were only layoffs, the market could still say it’s just short-term volatility. But if continued claims keep accumulating, it suggests the labor market is gradually losing its flexibility and that companies’ willingness to hire is declining.
At this point in time, it’s even more delicate. Inflation hasn’t completely calmed down yet, and employment has started to weaken again. The Federal Reserve is suddenly caught in the middle—easing policy is risky because of inflation, but tightening is also risky because of the economy.
For crypto, this kind of ambiguity is often when volatility is highest. Whether or not rates are cut directly determines whether capital dares to move into the market.
So do you think the Fed’s next step will prioritize jobs first, or rein in inflation first?
#美国续请失业金人数177.4万
👉 点击链接进入群聊
First, distinguish between the two numbers. Initial claims are for people who are filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Continued claims are for people who have already received unemployment benefits once and are still receiving them. The former reflects whether layoffs have suddenly increased. The latter reflects how long it takes these people to find their next job. When continued claims trend upward, it means finding a new job is getting harder.
This is where the real trouble lies. If it were only layoffs, the market could still say it’s just short-term volatility. But if continued claims keep accumulating, it suggests the labor market is gradually losing its flexibility and that companies’ willingness to hire is declining.
At this point in time, it’s even more delicate. Inflation hasn’t completely calmed down yet, and employment has started to weaken again. The Federal Reserve is suddenly caught in the middle—easing policy is risky because of inflation, but tightening is also risky because of the economy.
For crypto, this kind of ambiguity is often when volatility is highest. Whether or not rates are cut directly determines whether capital dares to move into the market.
So do you think the Fed’s next step will prioritize jobs first, or rein in inflation first?
#美国续请失业金人数177.4万