This time, Huang Mao has basically come out and called the trade openly.
Because of the Iran war, the oil price has surged—it's possible it won't really cool down until after the midterm election. Honestly, at this point I also feel the odds for going short crude oil are getting increasingly attractive.
Also, after crude surged to $106.98 just now, it was instantly dumped back to around $102. On the 5-minute timeframe, a single extremely exaggerated high-volume long upper-wick has printed. From a technical perspective, this suggests there’s been very clear sell pressure around 106–107—at least a short-term reversal signal worth being cautious about.
Fundamentals: there’s the old Trump headline/guidance. Technicals: the market also printed a high-volume needle. My short position at 103.3 is already in.
The only thing that’s uncomfortable right now is that the funding rate is too expensive—it’s already hit -0.18%. Even if the direction is eventually correct, if you want to hold all the way through the midterm election, this funding will grind people down layer by layer.
#原油 #中东战争 #行情反转在即
Because of the Iran war, the oil price has surged—it's possible it won't really cool down until after the midterm election. Honestly, at this point I also feel the odds for going short crude oil are getting increasingly attractive.
Also, after crude surged to $106.98 just now, it was instantly dumped back to around $102. On the 5-minute timeframe, a single extremely exaggerated high-volume long upper-wick has printed. From a technical perspective, this suggests there’s been very clear sell pressure around 106–107—at least a short-term reversal signal worth being cautious about.
Fundamentals: there’s the old Trump headline/guidance. Technicals: the market also printed a high-volume needle. My short position at 103.3 is already in.
The only thing that’s uncomfortable right now is that the funding rate is too expensive—it’s already hit -0.18%. Even if the direction is eventually correct, if you want to hold all the way through the midterm election, this funding will grind people down layer by layer.
#原油 #中东战争 #行情反转在即
