$MET This 15m dump has something to it. The price dropping 2.25% isn’t too outrageous, but the volume is directly up to 2.21x, the volatility Z is 2.94—clearly someone doesn’t want to hold anymore. OI on the 15m dropped 2.55%, nominally -230K; the 1h is also -1.58%. With volume and price moving together, it doesn’t look like fresh shorts entering—more like longs themselves are withdrawing.
The aggressive trading delta is -18.9%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.68, and sell pressure is more aggressive. The funding rate is still in the high percentile recently, suggesting that the previous longs were overcrowded, and now they’re paying the bill for that crowding. OI’s percentile is abnormal at 97%, the whole pool is abnormal #2. It has continued through several consecutive cycles, approaching its own historical extreme zone.
With this structure, I lean toward longs deleveraging—stopping out or passively reducing positions—not confirmation of a trend reversal. But the problem is: it hasn’t stopped yet. Wait for OI to stabilize and funding to cool off, then see whether there’s a chance to catch. Reaching in right now is easy to catch a falling knife.
The aggressive trading delta is -18.9%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.68, and sell pressure is more aggressive. The funding rate is still in the high percentile recently, suggesting that the previous longs were overcrowded, and now they’re paying the bill for that crowding. OI’s percentile is abnormal at 97%, the whole pool is abnormal #2. It has continued through several consecutive cycles, approaching its own historical extreme zone.
With this structure, I lean toward longs deleveraging—stopping out or passively reducing positions—not confirmation of a trend reversal. But the problem is: it hasn’t stopped yet. Wait for OI to stabilize and funding to cool off, then see whether there’s a chance to catch. Reaching in right now is easy to catch a falling knife.