U.S. Core PPI m/m is set to be released tonight, with expectations of 0.3% versus the prior 0.2%. It’s starting to look a bit “sticky” on the inflation side again.
$XAU is especially sensitive to the interest-rate path right now. A rise in Core PPI means the expected timeline for rate cuts has to be pushed further back. Higher real yields are a headwind for gold, but safe-haven inflows also provide solid support. Personally, I lean toward the idea that after the data comes out, $XAU will first probe lower—then we’ll see whether it can hold key support based on how the price action reacts.
$BTC is the same here: hot money is most sensitive to expectations for liquidity. If the data comes in above expectations, the short-term move is likely to get smashed for a wave—but the downside is probably limited since the market has already priced in part of it. A print below expectations is the real positive.
Guessing the direction: if the data meets or beats expectations, there’s a higher chance that $XAU and $BTC face short-term pressure; if it comes in unexpectedly soft, there may be a rebound opportunity. Keep an eye on the change in volume at the moment of release.
$XAU is especially sensitive to the interest-rate path right now. A rise in Core PPI means the expected timeline for rate cuts has to be pushed further back. Higher real yields are a headwind for gold, but safe-haven inflows also provide solid support. Personally, I lean toward the idea that after the data comes out, $XAU will first probe lower—then we’ll see whether it can hold key support based on how the price action reacts.
$BTC is the same here: hot money is most sensitive to expectations for liquidity. If the data comes in above expectations, the short-term move is likely to get smashed for a wave—but the downside is probably limited since the market has already priced in part of it. A print below expectations is the real positive.
Guessing the direction: if the data meets or beats expectations, there’s a higher chance that $XAU and $BTC face short-term pressure; if it comes in unexpectedly soft, there may be a rebound opportunity. Keep an eye on the change in volume at the moment of release.