On Thursday, the UK gilts market saw sustained selling, with yields hitting a new 19-year high. The backdrop was that international oil prices broke above $100 per barrel for the first time in six weeks, intensifying pressure for global borrowing costs to rise. During this period, the UK Debt Management Office (DMO) completed a £5 billion auction of 2030-dated gilts. Despite bids totaling £16.2 billion, the average yield climbed to 4.786%, the highest since October 2023; and earlier, the yield on the 30-year gilt had already reached its highest level since 1998.
A surge in energy prices is rapidly pushing up inflation expectations, and disrupting the market’s prior assumption that central banks would accelerate easing. As Susannah Streeter, Head of Investment Strategy at Wealth Club, noted, while higher energy prices are a catalyst, global capital flows are undergoing a structural shift. Large institutions are diverting away in search of yield, lifting the cost of sovereign debt. With sticky inflation combining with high yields, global liquidity conditions are being severely constrained.
From a traditional macro perspective, benchmark yields rising across the board directly increases discount rates for various assets. The synchrony of oil prices breaking above $100 and the spike in gilt yields is keeping the dollar and global capital costs elevated, putting clear downward pressure on global assets such as equities and gold. Demand for risk aversion and hedging is far stronger than any blind expansion.
For the crypto market, tightening macro liquidity and rising borrowing costs are headwinds that cannot be ignored. When risk-free assets offer yields near 5% or even higher, the appeal of risk assets—including $BTC —will be squeezed. In an environment where oil prices remain elevated and liquidity is tightening, investors should be alert to the risk of valuation pullbacks driven by macro pressure in the near term. 📊
#国债收益率 #通胀 #Macroeconomy
A surge in energy prices is rapidly pushing up inflation expectations, and disrupting the market’s prior assumption that central banks would accelerate easing. As Susannah Streeter, Head of Investment Strategy at Wealth Club, noted, while higher energy prices are a catalyst, global capital flows are undergoing a structural shift. Large institutions are diverting away in search of yield, lifting the cost of sovereign debt. With sticky inflation combining with high yields, global liquidity conditions are being severely constrained.
From a traditional macro perspective, benchmark yields rising across the board directly increases discount rates for various assets. The synchrony of oil prices breaking above $100 and the spike in gilt yields is keeping the dollar and global capital costs elevated, putting clear downward pressure on global assets such as equities and gold. Demand for risk aversion and hedging is far stronger than any blind expansion.
For the crypto market, tightening macro liquidity and rising borrowing costs are headwinds that cannot be ignored. When risk-free assets offer yields near 5% or even higher, the appeal of risk assets—including $BTC —will be squeezed. In an environment where oil prices remain elevated and liquidity is tightening, investors should be alert to the risk of valuation pullbacks driven by macro pressure in the near term. 📊
#国债收益率 #通胀 #Macroeconomy