The current price is $78,112, and it’s down 1.49% over the past 24 hours. Doesn’t that look pretty ordinary? But take a closer look at the funding rate: +0.0079%. Longs are still paying shorts, which means leveraged longs are still crowded. Historically, the real breakout period usually comes 12–18 months after the halving, and we’re right around the middle of that window now. The problem is that market sentiment and price action show a rare divergence—prices are falling, but longs won’t back off.
First, look at the candlestick structure. The last four 1-hour candles: opened at 78,400, surged to 78,536, then printed two consecutive bearish candles, pulling back to 78,112. The 24h low is 77,770 and the high is 79,760, with an amplitude of about 2.5%. Trading volume is only 14,299 BTC. What does this volume suggest? 🔄 It indicates both long and short sides are watching from the sidelines—nobody wants to make a heavy bet at this level. The post-halving supply shock should, in theory, have been digested by now, but the price still hasn’t broken out. The core reason isn’t that the halving failed—it’s that macro liquidity hasn’t truly been released yet.
Many people compare this to the halving period in 2020, saying that after the halving, the market should take off within six months. But don’t forget: in 2020, the Federal Reserve’s unlimited QE provided a backstop. What about now? The high-rate environment hasn’t fully turned yet. 📊 The halving is a certain positive for supply, but the demand side needs macro support. That’s why $BTC is still consolidating around the 78k area 400 days after the halving—not because the logic is wrong, but because the timing is slow. The funding rate at +0.0079% isn’t high, but staying positive indicates the market overall still leans bullish; it’s just that spot buying isn’t aggressive enough.
My take: at this level, downside room is limited, but the upward catalyst hasn’t arrived yet. If the 24h low at 77,770 holds, it would suggest that near-term selling pressure has largely been released. But to truly break above the previous high, we need to see trading volume expand to at least 2–3 times the current level, and the funding rate return to neutral or even turn negative—that would indicate leveraged positions have been thoroughly cleaned out and spot starts taking control. 🧠 Halving-cycle money isn’t made by chasing pumps; it’s made when others can’t hold on and you’re still there.
Finally, a straight answer: the halving narrative hasn’t been disproven—it’s just been delayed. What you really need to watch isn’t today’s 1.49% move, but whether macro liquidity will shift direction over the next 3–6 months.
Do you think this halving cycle will be delayed until 2026 to really kick off, or will it start this year in Q4? Vote in the comments below 👇
#比特币 #BTC减半 #cryptocurrency
First, look at the candlestick structure. The last four 1-hour candles: opened at 78,400, surged to 78,536, then printed two consecutive bearish candles, pulling back to 78,112. The 24h low is 77,770 and the high is 79,760, with an amplitude of about 2.5%. Trading volume is only 14,299 BTC. What does this volume suggest? 🔄 It indicates both long and short sides are watching from the sidelines—nobody wants to make a heavy bet at this level. The post-halving supply shock should, in theory, have been digested by now, but the price still hasn’t broken out. The core reason isn’t that the halving failed—it’s that macro liquidity hasn’t truly been released yet.
Many people compare this to the halving period in 2020, saying that after the halving, the market should take off within six months. But don’t forget: in 2020, the Federal Reserve’s unlimited QE provided a backstop. What about now? The high-rate environment hasn’t fully turned yet. 📊 The halving is a certain positive for supply, but the demand side needs macro support. That’s why $BTC is still consolidating around the 78k area 400 days after the halving—not because the logic is wrong, but because the timing is slow. The funding rate at +0.0079% isn’t high, but staying positive indicates the market overall still leans bullish; it’s just that spot buying isn’t aggressive enough.
My take: at this level, downside room is limited, but the upward catalyst hasn’t arrived yet. If the 24h low at 77,770 holds, it would suggest that near-term selling pressure has largely been released. But to truly break above the previous high, we need to see trading volume expand to at least 2–3 times the current level, and the funding rate return to neutral or even turn negative—that would indicate leveraged positions have been thoroughly cleaned out and spot starts taking control. 🧠 Halving-cycle money isn’t made by chasing pumps; it’s made when others can’t hold on and you’re still there.
Finally, a straight answer: the halving narrative hasn’t been disproven—it’s just been delayed. What you really need to watch isn’t today’s 1.49% move, but whether macro liquidity will shift direction over the next 3–6 months.
Do you think this halving cycle will be delayed until 2026 to really kick off, or will it start this year in Q4? Vote in the comments below 👇
#比特币 #BTC减半 #cryptocurrency
