U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has recently been taking frequent action, drawing intense market attention to the Trump administration’s exchange-rate policies. According to industry analysis, the U.S. Treasury is currently coordinating with Japan on a joint intervention in support of the yen, while also pushing South Korea to take similar measures, and working to rein in yields on U.S. government bonds. Coupled with 18 months of trade protection policies and multiple bilateral agreements, these moves appear to be paving the way for the U.S. dollar to gradually weaken.
Analysts at well-known currency fund manager Eurizon SLJ note that directly designing a comprehensive plan to suppress the dollar would be extremely difficult, as it could easily unsettle foreign investors holding massive assets in U.S. stocks and bonds. Therefore, U.S. authorities are more likely to adopt a “fragmented” strategy: negotiating separately with each major trading partner to establish multiple small bilateral exchange-rate coordination mechanisms. This would help avoid the formation of a sustained one-way depreciation expectation, while quietly steering the dollar back toward a reasonable valuation.
From the perspective of macro financial markets, this gradual weak-dollar strategy is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, controlling U.S. bond yields and guiding non-U.S. currencies to appreciate can help ease global liquidity pressure and reduce some emerging-market debt risks. On the other hand, if the pace of dollar weakening gets out of control, global capital’s willingness to allocate to U.S. assets—both bonds and equities—may be reshaped, bringing new volatility to asset prices.
For the crypto market, changes in dollar liquidity have long been a key factor affecting risk appetite. If a weak-dollar trend becomes gradually established, the global liquidity environment may improve at the margin, providing macro support for risk assets, including $BTC . But if bilateral exchange-rate bargaining intensifies market uncertainty, short-term funds may also fall into a wait-and-see mode. The subsequent outlook still depends on how macro policies are practically implemented.
#usd #美联储 #Macroeconomy
Analysts at well-known currency fund manager Eurizon SLJ note that directly designing a comprehensive plan to suppress the dollar would be extremely difficult, as it could easily unsettle foreign investors holding massive assets in U.S. stocks and bonds. Therefore, U.S. authorities are more likely to adopt a “fragmented” strategy: negotiating separately with each major trading partner to establish multiple small bilateral exchange-rate coordination mechanisms. This would help avoid the formation of a sustained one-way depreciation expectation, while quietly steering the dollar back toward a reasonable valuation.
From the perspective of macro financial markets, this gradual weak-dollar strategy is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, controlling U.S. bond yields and guiding non-U.S. currencies to appreciate can help ease global liquidity pressure and reduce some emerging-market debt risks. On the other hand, if the pace of dollar weakening gets out of control, global capital’s willingness to allocate to U.S. assets—both bonds and equities—may be reshaped, bringing new volatility to asset prices.
For the crypto market, changes in dollar liquidity have long been a key factor affecting risk appetite. If a weak-dollar trend becomes gradually established, the global liquidity environment may improve at the margin, providing macro support for risk assets, including $BTC . But if bilateral exchange-rate bargaining intensifies market uncertainty, short-term funds may also fall into a wait-and-see mode. The subsequent outlook still depends on how macro policies are practically implemented.
#usd #美联储 #Macroeconomy