As the Federal Reserve’s meeting draws closer, the appearance of various data points is actually making the later走势 for the crypto market more and more clear. For users who are looking to go long, Lao Cui believes that things are definitely a bit chaotic at this stage. On the data front, rate hikes are almost a sure thing: the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has broken above 5.30%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.8184%, hitting a recent high. The 30-year Treasury has limited reference value; the 10-year yield is increasingly approaching a 5% rate. 5% is a red line—once it’s crossed, it suggests that America’s bubble is likely ready to be punctured, and a wave of financial crisis could be on the way. The core factor behind the rate hikes is inflation data, and the core of inflation is Brent crude oil breaking above $101 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is up more than 3% intraday to $95.86 per barrel. Do you remember what Lao Cui said earlier? Between March and September, if the issue of a ceasefire with Iran isn’t resolved and crude oil prices haven’t been effectively controlled, then this year will enter a rhythm of rate hikes—but it’s clear that neither of these two conditions has been met.

A negative signal—not only the U.S. releasing it, but Iranian officials: if necessary, they are prepared to conduct a more intense war with the United States; plus the diplomacy between Russia and Germany over the past two days, filled with strong military signals. At one point, Russia even felt it was an official declaration of war on the diplomatic front—this is also what has thrown the world political landscape into renewed chaos. This is not Old Cui overstating things. Entering the second half of the year, military-level developments are actually escalating step by step. Old Cui’s conclusion is that even if this year’s clear legislation can be implemented, the impact will be greatly weakened. What’s being passed now can only be considered a lifeline. Bitcoin’s new highs are hard to reach because there is an even larger market: international spot gold is up 1.76% to $4,432.28 per ounce, while spot silver is up more than 3%. Gold’s such rapid rise certainly, on some level, indicates that certain signals have appeared. Everyone has different ways of thinking—so it’s important to be cautious.

Old Cui’s summary: Yesterday, Bitcoin saw a short-term breakthrough. The high reached 79,737, and the bearish forces were also quite strong. Today it has again fallen to 77,912. As for the short-selling approach, everyone has also seen some results. As long as an upward breakout occurs, the issues with shorting shouldn’t be too big. This round’s longer-term bullish trend, in Old Cui’s view, has already come to an end. The only remaining supporting factor keeping the price from dropping is the message from the clean legislation’s decision timeline. Make an end-of-year forecast: if the year sees rate hikes, and at the same time military conflicts escalate, Bitcoin is very likely to return to the beginning of the 6s. A new low is unlikely to appear, because there will be more bullish support messages later on. The best-case scenario this year is that the bill and interest-rate cuts arrive simultaneously. Even if both are achieved within the year, it still won’t be a time to set new highs—this year is not the best timing. U.S. Treasury yields, along with the military impact—even the inflation data—are all significant bearish factors. For spot and futures users alike, at this stage the only option is to short; there is no option to go long. Remind again: don’t trade small-cap coins!