It’s been falling so fast that it’s already pressed down to the short-term lows. On the futures side, more than 20% of positions were wiped out in a single day. The positioning quadrant is directly labeled “bearish capitulation.” On the spot side, though, net capital inflows have stayed positive for more than a dozen consecutive intervals—big orders have been getting picked up all the way through. The harder it drops, the more aggressively they buy. Not the slightest bit ambiguous. Even the fees have burned into negative territory. When the bears smash the market, they even end up paying extra. Meanwhile, the long exposure share in large traders’ accounts is overwhelmingly dominant. The more I look at this setup, the more interested I get: panic selling is handing over diplomatic chips, while smart money is picking up below with real enthusiasm. The positions that have been cut will, sooner or later, be bought back at a premium.