$BTC
The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to the highest level since November 2023
Once this “anchor” breaks, it’s over
Global assets will all shake along with it
But it also might be a reversal
Brothers,
The anchor for global asset pricing is loosening again, damn it
The 10-year US Treasury yield has directly touched the highest point since November 2023
I pulled up the chart
Oh wow
That number just shoots up
Global funding costs all rise together
No one can run
Let me put it simply and explain what’s going on
When US Treasury yields rise,
it basically means the market thinks inflation hasn’t fully died yet
Plus the US government has a huge debt pile
There’s still around $40 trillion in debt being stacked
New bonds are issued one batch after another
Why would investors buy your long-dated bonds?
Of course they need a higher interest rate
And then, on top of that,
Middle East oil prices are nearing 100
Inflation expectations are also climbing again
All these forces are pushing in together
Yields can’t not fly
Even more ruthless is this:
The market isn’t only debating when rate cuts will happen anymore
People are already betting on whether the Fed might actually hike
Keeping high rates for longer has become the main storyline again
If you can just earn 4.8% interest risk-free from government bonds,
who the hell would take the risk to touch high-volatility assets?
Mapping this to the crypto market:
In traditional logic,
when US Treasury yields rise,
risk assets that don’t yield—like BTC (“big pie”)—are uncomfortable
Money pulls out from BTC and US growth stocks,
then turns around to buy US Treasuries for the interest
So the market will naturally face pressure
This logic checks out
But brothers,
is there a possibility of another scenario?
When US Treasury yields rise,
the root cause isn’t inflation, and it’s not economic overheating
Instead, the market is嫌弃 the US debt is too much
Worried that fiscal sustainability is in question
So they don’t want to take the US bonds at a low price
They demand higher yield as compensation
So US Treasuries get passively pushed higher
Could this be the case?
If so,
then the script would be completely flipped
BTC would instead be treated as a tool to hedge government credit risk
The worse the US Treasuries are,
the tastier BTC becomes
Recently, the fund flows
seem to indirectly confirm this as well
No matter what,
don’t see the news and then go heavy short
Right now the market
moves faster than your damn wife flipping on you
So it’s better to be cautious
#us10ytreasuryyieldhitshighestsincenov2023
The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to the highest level since November 2023
Once this “anchor” breaks, it’s over
Global assets will all shake along with it
But it also might be a reversal
Brothers,
The anchor for global asset pricing is loosening again, damn it
The 10-year US Treasury yield has directly touched the highest point since November 2023
I pulled up the chart
Oh wow
That number just shoots up
Global funding costs all rise together
No one can run
Let me put it simply and explain what’s going on
When US Treasury yields rise,
it basically means the market thinks inflation hasn’t fully died yet
Plus the US government has a huge debt pile
There’s still around $40 trillion in debt being stacked
New bonds are issued one batch after another
Why would investors buy your long-dated bonds?
Of course they need a higher interest rate
And then, on top of that,
Middle East oil prices are nearing 100
Inflation expectations are also climbing again
All these forces are pushing in together
Yields can’t not fly
Even more ruthless is this:
The market isn’t only debating when rate cuts will happen anymore
People are already betting on whether the Fed might actually hike
Keeping high rates for longer has become the main storyline again
If you can just earn 4.8% interest risk-free from government bonds,
who the hell would take the risk to touch high-volatility assets?
Mapping this to the crypto market:
In traditional logic,
when US Treasury yields rise,
risk assets that don’t yield—like BTC (“big pie”)—are uncomfortable
Money pulls out from BTC and US growth stocks,
then turns around to buy US Treasuries for the interest
So the market will naturally face pressure
This logic checks out
But brothers,
is there a possibility of another scenario?
When US Treasury yields rise,
the root cause isn’t inflation, and it’s not economic overheating
Instead, the market is嫌弃 the US debt is too much
Worried that fiscal sustainability is in question
So they don’t want to take the US bonds at a low price
They demand higher yield as compensation
So US Treasuries get passively pushed higher
Could this be the case?
If so,
then the script would be completely flipped
BTC would instead be treated as a tool to hedge government credit risk
The worse the US Treasuries are,
the tastier BTC becomes
Recently, the fund flows
seem to indirectly confirm this as well
No matter what,
don’t see the news and then go heavy short
Right now the market
moves faster than your damn wife flipping on you
So it’s better to be cautious
#us10ytreasuryyieldhitshighestsincenov2023
