$BTC 9September 10 crash review: Is this wave just a pullback, or a trend reversal?
To put it simply, today's drop was macro headwinds meeting a wave of concentrated long liquidations. Oil prices suddenly broke above $100, the market started worrying again about inflation and rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, and risk assets naturally came under pressure. On top of that, BTC and ETH ETFs continued to see outflows, and the leveraged long positions that had built up earlier were wiped out in waves, creating a chain reaction of “drop -> liquidation -> further sell-off.” However, the current liquidation scale has not yet reached an extreme level, so this still looks more like a concentrated shakeout for now, and it is not yet fair to say the bull market is over.
On the chart, BTC has fallen from around 81250 all the way down and has now posted consecutive red candles, but it has not truly broken below the key 75000-76000 area yet. This zone can be seen as the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. As long as this level holds, there is still a chance to rebound back toward 79000-80000. ETH is relatively weaker; 2400 has already been broken, and the key short-term support to watch is 2300. Altcoins have fallen even harder, which shows that funds are clearly rotating into BTC right now. The market is seeking safety, but that does not mean the entire crypto market has completely collapsed.
What will really determine the next direction is PPI and CPI data. If inflation data comes in below expectations, the market may once again price in rate cuts, and if BTC holds 75000-76000, there is a chance for a recovery move higher. But if the data keeps coming in above expectations, then once 75000 is broken decisively, we need to watch for a further move toward around 72000. So what you should avoid most right now is seeing a big drop and rushing to buy the dip. Wait and see whether 75000-76000 holds before looking for a rebound; if it breaks, step aside first and do not force it. With volatility this high lately, if you want to trade, you can only do so with a small position, and add more only after the direction truly becomes clear.
#布伦特原油突破100美元 #美国10年期美债收益率创2023年11月新高
To put it simply, today's drop was macro headwinds meeting a wave of concentrated long liquidations. Oil prices suddenly broke above $100, the market started worrying again about inflation and rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, and risk assets naturally came under pressure. On top of that, BTC and ETH ETFs continued to see outflows, and the leveraged long positions that had built up earlier were wiped out in waves, creating a chain reaction of “drop -> liquidation -> further sell-off.” However, the current liquidation scale has not yet reached an extreme level, so this still looks more like a concentrated shakeout for now, and it is not yet fair to say the bull market is over.
On the chart, BTC has fallen from around 81250 all the way down and has now posted consecutive red candles, but it has not truly broken below the key 75000-76000 area yet. This zone can be seen as the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. As long as this level holds, there is still a chance to rebound back toward 79000-80000. ETH is relatively weaker; 2400 has already been broken, and the key short-term support to watch is 2300. Altcoins have fallen even harder, which shows that funds are clearly rotating into BTC right now. The market is seeking safety, but that does not mean the entire crypto market has completely collapsed.
What will really determine the next direction is PPI and CPI data. If inflation data comes in below expectations, the market may once again price in rate cuts, and if BTC holds 75000-76000, there is a chance for a recovery move higher. But if the data keeps coming in above expectations, then once 75000 is broken decisively, we need to watch for a further move toward around 72000. So what you should avoid most right now is seeing a big drop and rushing to buy the dip. Wait and see whether 75000-76000 holds before looking for a rebound; if it breaks, step aside first and do not force it. With volatility this high lately, if you want to trade, you can only do so with a small position, and add more only after the direction truly becomes clear.
#布伦特原油突破100美元 #美国10年期美债收益率创2023年11月新高
