$SAHARA This rally can go up, but I don’t want the back-row longs to foot the bill. From 10:00, a complete full hour went from 0.01035 to 0.01106. Spot trading volume is about $2.61 million, roughly 3 times the average of the previous 4 hours. The breakout is real, and so is the crowding.
What’s even more interesting is that over the past 4 hours, open interest (OI) increased by about 10.9%. Across all accounts, 61.7% are net long; large accounts are 63.5% net long. Yet the 4-hour funding rate is still -0.0055%. On the forum one side is shouting “breakout,” while the other side is waiting for the run-up to roll over. My take: the spot market is pushing, while contract positions are piling up rapidly. A negative funding rate suggests sell-side pressure is still there, but with about 60% of accounts crowded long, if it’s a false breakout, the cascade will come very quickly.
So I’m not chasing near 0.011. A 15-minute candle that breaks out on increased volume and closes above 0.01115 would be the confirmation that the uptrend continues. A pullback to 0.01065 with volume shrinking and holding can be observed. If the 1-hour candle closes below 0.01020, then this breakout is invalid. This isn’t about guessing how much it can still rise; it’s about seeing whether the next big bullish candle is powered by spot buyers or by leveraged longs picking up the baton.#SAHARA #SaharaAI #多空分歧 #HotCoin
What’s even more interesting is that over the past 4 hours, open interest (OI) increased by about 10.9%. Across all accounts, 61.7% are net long; large accounts are 63.5% net long. Yet the 4-hour funding rate is still -0.0055%. On the forum one side is shouting “breakout,” while the other side is waiting for the run-up to roll over. My take: the spot market is pushing, while contract positions are piling up rapidly. A negative funding rate suggests sell-side pressure is still there, but with about 60% of accounts crowded long, if it’s a false breakout, the cascade will come very quickly.
So I’m not chasing near 0.011. A 15-minute candle that breaks out on increased volume and closes above 0.01115 would be the confirmation that the uptrend continues. A pullback to 0.01065 with volume shrinking and holding can be observed. If the 1-hour candle closes below 0.01020, then this breakout is invalid. This isn’t about guessing how much it can still rise; it’s about seeing whether the next big bullish candle is powered by spot buyers or by leveraged longs picking up the baton.#SAHARA #SaharaAI #多空分歧 #HotCoin
