Recently, I’ve noticed that many people place too much weight on ETF inflows.
A few days ago, BTC ETFs saw consecutive large inflows, and the market immediately started talking as if institutional money had returned.
But BTC didn’t keep rising as a result.
Now, ETF net outflows have reappeared on a single day.
This, in turn, makes me more and more certain of something:
ETF inflows are not a buy signal—they’re just evidence.
What really matters is—
after the money comes in, how does the price react?
If $1 billion comes in and BTC still can’t move higher,
then what I’m trying to research is not:
“How much did institutions buy?”
but:
“Who is selling, and why can’t such a big buy order push the price up?”
And the same goes the other way.
Right now, oil prices have broken above $100, and U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 4.84%—the macro environment is clearly uncomfortable.
If next, PPI and CPI continue to add pressure,
and BTC still manages to hold here,
then even if ETFs don’t have net inflows every day, I might actually upgrade my assessment of the market.
Because what I care about more and more now isn’t:
how good the news is.
It’s:
when the market faces bad news, can it actually be pushed down?
In many cases,
real strength isn’t when good news comes out and the price rockets higher.
It’s when bad news keeps piling up, yet the price still isn’t willing to fall.
That’s also how I’ve been adjusting my way of judging the market recently:
the data tells me what’s happening, and the price tells me whether that data really matters.
$BTC #Crypto
A few days ago, BTC ETFs saw consecutive large inflows, and the market immediately started talking as if institutional money had returned.
But BTC didn’t keep rising as a result.
Now, ETF net outflows have reappeared on a single day.
This, in turn, makes me more and more certain of something:
ETF inflows are not a buy signal—they’re just evidence.
What really matters is—
after the money comes in, how does the price react?
If $1 billion comes in and BTC still can’t move higher,
then what I’m trying to research is not:
“How much did institutions buy?”
but:
“Who is selling, and why can’t such a big buy order push the price up?”
And the same goes the other way.
Right now, oil prices have broken above $100, and U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 4.84%—the macro environment is clearly uncomfortable.
If next, PPI and CPI continue to add pressure,
and BTC still manages to hold here,
then even if ETFs don’t have net inflows every day, I might actually upgrade my assessment of the market.
Because what I care about more and more now isn’t:
how good the news is.
It’s:
when the market faces bad news, can it actually be pushed down?
In many cases,
real strength isn’t when good news comes out and the price rockets higher.
It’s when bad news keeps piling up, yet the price still isn’t willing to fall.
That’s also how I’ve been adjusting my way of judging the market recently:
the data tells me what’s happening, and the price tells me whether that data really matters.
$BTC #Crypto