📰 $40.8 billion worth of BTC options open interest is keeping the market trapped in a narrow range between $78,000 and $81,000. Earlier, BTC briefly fell below $78,000 and then rebounded; what people were debating in the group shifted from “will it keep dropping?” to “when will this box break out?”
🔥 The reason isn’t complicated: near $81,000, market makers find it easier to sell BTC to cap the upside; near $78,000, they may buy BTC to absorb the decline. Honestly, with this kind of structure, both bulls and bears are likely to get chopped up back and forth.
💡 The technical picture does offer a slightly positive signal: the 50-day moving average has crossed back above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025. After each of the last three similar signals, BTC rose by roughly 50%, 45%, and 60%, respectively. But whether this time can be replicated still depends on whether we can form higher highs and reclaim the 50-week moving average.
👀 On-chain positioning is even more interesting. Long-term holders hold about 14.74 million BTC, roughly 74% of the circulating supply. As long as this batch of coins isn’t sold off in a concentrated way, an extreme scenario of a drop to $30,000–$40,000 is less likely to occur—but that doesn’t mean short-term pullbacks are already over.
🤔 Do you think BTC will break above $81,000 first, or will it drop below $78,000 and flush the leverage first?
#BTC #比特币 #期权市场 #on-chain data
🔥 The reason isn’t complicated: near $81,000, market makers find it easier to sell BTC to cap the upside; near $78,000, they may buy BTC to absorb the decline. Honestly, with this kind of structure, both bulls and bears are likely to get chopped up back and forth.
💡 The technical picture does offer a slightly positive signal: the 50-day moving average has crossed back above the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025. After each of the last three similar signals, BTC rose by roughly 50%, 45%, and 60%, respectively. But whether this time can be replicated still depends on whether we can form higher highs and reclaim the 50-week moving average.
👀 On-chain positioning is even more interesting. Long-term holders hold about 14.74 million BTC, roughly 74% of the circulating supply. As long as this batch of coins isn’t sold off in a concentrated way, an extreme scenario of a drop to $30,000–$40,000 is less likely to occur—but that doesn’t mean short-term pullbacks are already over.
🤔 Do you think BTC will break above $81,000 first, or will it drop below $78,000 and flush the leverage first?
#BTC #比特币 #期权市场 #on-chain data
