Every round of major technological breakthroughs first breeds a bubble, then a crash.

Railways, the Industrial Revolution, the electrification wave—without exception.

Looking back to the late 1920s.

Electricity, refrigerators, telephones, radios, airplanes, cars—everything erupted at once.

It was an era of true technological miracles.

Everyone wanted to bet on these new industries.

The stock market went crazy, leverage was maxed out, and retail investors queued up to get in.

Then what?

In 1929, it all crashed.

Technology didn’t stop, but the stock price crashed first.

The most core risks are hidden here.

Technological miracles and investment targets are two different things.

Even if the technology really can upend the world, as long as valuations inflate and leverage piles up, a crash will still come.

Does new technology have value? Of course it does.

But investing requires continuously asking three questions.

First, who gets the dividends?

The benefits brought by technology don’t necessarily accrue to the company you invest in.

The biggest winner of the power revolution wasn’t the power-generating companies, but the manufacturing industries that drove electricity costs down to the floor.

The biggest winners of the internet revolution were not portal websites, but Amazon and Google.

In the AI revolution, the biggest winners may not be the hottest companies right now.

Second, can it make money?

Technology may be feasible, and business may be feasible—but there’s a river between them.

Many companies have outstanding technology, but they can’t make money.

Spending money to buy growth ultimately leaves you with a total mess.

Third, did we pay too high a price for this miracle?

A good company bought at an expensive price can still be a bad investment.

If someone bought utility stocks in 1929 and didn’t break even until 1954, in those 25 years of life, who compensates them?

In every wave of technological innovation, some people make money by stories, while others lose everything because of them.

The difference isn’t about who understands technology better.

It all comes down to who understands pricing better.

Technology is real, and so is the bubble.

Only those who can distinguish these two things can survive the wave.

Remember: across the entire web, only Ray Dalio and DaliO have repeatedly reminded people to watch the risks.

While everyone else is urging you to go all in.

You’re always short on storage, always short on computing power…

This article is only an observation of historical patterns and does not constitute any investment advice.