Last night, the market was still debating whether Brent would break through $100. Tonight, it has genuinely already moved past that level.
Middle East supply risks continue to intensify, and Brent at one point reached around $100.80. U.S. stock index futures were also under pressure at the same time, and the market’s probability of a 25 bps rate hike next week rose to about 62.4%.
The normal logic goes like this:
Oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → rates stay higher for longer → Risk Assets face pressure.
But BTC tonight hasn’t followed that script—for now.
It rebounded from an intraday low of about $77,680 and is back near $79,500; meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures remain weak. This cross-market divergence is currently the most worth watching.
That said, I won’t just declare that BTC has already become “digital gold” because of a single bounce.
It could also just be position repair after the prior leg of selling, a weaker dollar, or the 24/7 market having already completed part of the price discovery in advance.
Next, I’m looking for two confirmations:
* Whether Brent can stay above $100 even after U.S. stock market hours begin;
* Whether BTC can break through and hold $80,000—not fall back below $77,680 again.
If the first holds true and the second holds true as well, then this relative strength this time is more deserving of serious attention; if BTC loses the low again, it would still just be a short-term rebound.
Middle East supply risks continue to intensify, and Brent at one point reached around $100.80. U.S. stock index futures were also under pressure at the same time, and the market’s probability of a 25 bps rate hike next week rose to about 62.4%.
The normal logic goes like this:
Oil prices rise → inflation pressure increases → rates stay higher for longer → Risk Assets face pressure.
But BTC tonight hasn’t followed that script—for now.
It rebounded from an intraday low of about $77,680 and is back near $79,500; meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures remain weak. This cross-market divergence is currently the most worth watching.
That said, I won’t just declare that BTC has already become “digital gold” because of a single bounce.
It could also just be position repair after the prior leg of selling, a weaker dollar, or the 24/7 market having already completed part of the price discovery in advance.
Next, I’m looking for two confirmations:
* Whether Brent can stay above $100 even after U.S. stock market hours begin;
* Whether BTC can break through and hold $80,000—not fall back below $77,680 again.
If the first holds true and the second holds true as well, then this relative strength this time is more deserving of serious attention; if BTC loses the low again, it would still just be a short-term rebound.
