Tonight at 23:00, the U.S. Treasury will release the size of its long-term Treasury bill repurchase program. This could become an important variable for U.S. stocks and the crypto market tonight.
This is not an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, nor is it a restart of QE. The Treasury is mainly repurchasing older Treasury securities with maturities of 10–20 years from the market, where liquidity is relatively poorer, with the aim of improving Treasury trading and easing the pressure of sustained increases in long-term yields. Previously, the maximum per single repurchase was $2 billion; it has now been confirmed to be raised to at least $4 billion, and the market is even expecting more than $6 billion.
For BTC and ETH, the key is not just the repurchase amount, but how Treasury yields move:
If the announced size is clearly above expectations and the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries quickly fall, while the U.S. dollar weakens in tandem, it usually provides short-term tailwinds for U.S. stocks, BTC, and ETH. If the announced amount is only $4 billion, it likely means it is roughly in line with expectations and the market may “lock in” the gains. If the repurchase size increases but Treasury yields continue to rise, that suggests the market is more concerned about U.S. debt, oil prices, and inflation—under which BTC may face continued pressure.
Everyone, don’t directly interpret “the Treasury repurchasing Treasuries” as “the U.S. flooding the market with money.” At the same time, the U.S. is still issuing large amounts of new debt. This repurchase is mainly about adjusting the bond structure and improving liquidity. Even so, the scale is still limited relative to the overall Treasury market.
What you really need to watch tonight is not the headline, but three reaction points: the 10-year Treasury yield, the U.S. Dollar Index, and the Nasdaq (Nasdaq-100). Only if yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the Nasdaq rises can it be considered that the bullish signal has truly transmitted to the crypto market. If it breaks below 2400, go short immediately.
This is not an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve, nor is it a restart of QE. The Treasury is mainly repurchasing older Treasury securities with maturities of 10–20 years from the market, where liquidity is relatively poorer, with the aim of improving Treasury trading and easing the pressure of sustained increases in long-term yields. Previously, the maximum per single repurchase was $2 billion; it has now been confirmed to be raised to at least $4 billion, and the market is even expecting more than $6 billion.
For BTC and ETH, the key is not just the repurchase amount, but how Treasury yields move:
If the announced size is clearly above expectations and the yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries quickly fall, while the U.S. dollar weakens in tandem, it usually provides short-term tailwinds for U.S. stocks, BTC, and ETH. If the announced amount is only $4 billion, it likely means it is roughly in line with expectations and the market may “lock in” the gains. If the repurchase size increases but Treasury yields continue to rise, that suggests the market is more concerned about U.S. debt, oil prices, and inflation—under which BTC may face continued pressure.
Everyone, don’t directly interpret “the Treasury repurchasing Treasuries” as “the U.S. flooding the market with money.” At the same time, the U.S. is still issuing large amounts of new debt. This repurchase is mainly about adjusting the bond structure and improving liquidity. Even so, the scale is still limited relative to the overall Treasury market.
What you really need to watch tonight is not the headline, but three reaction points: the 10-year Treasury yield, the U.S. Dollar Index, and the Nasdaq (Nasdaq-100). Only if yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the Nasdaq rises can it be considered that the bullish signal has truly transmitted to the crypto market. If it breaks below 2400, go short immediately.