Led by Cathie Wood, **ARK Invest** said that while Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to show strength relative to gold, there is still “substantial upside potential.” The firm’s assessment is based on the fact that the ‘Bitcoin-to-gold ratio’—the price of Bitcoin divided by the price of gold—has surpassed the 18 level and reached the highest level since January.
Key takeaways
ARK Invest’s September commentary assesses Bitcoin’s performance versus gold as being driven by an “ease factor,” adding that a significant portion of the upcycle is still left.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio surged to 18.17, reaching the highest level since January. Over the same period, Bitcoin climbed by about 22%, while spot gold rose by only 2%.
Both assets have been rallying together amid concerns about the dilution of currency value, and experts are divided on whether this trend can be sustained.
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio hits a 8-month high
In its September market commentary, ARK Invest brought the Bitcoin-to-gold comparison framework—once again—back to the forefront, after Cash Wood had emphasized it for years.
Wood described Bitcoin as an “asset with three revolutions layered on top.” She explains that it is comprised of: ▲ a technology platform ▲ a currency system without a issuing entity ▲ and the first component of a completely new asset class that didn’t exist before 2009. She called the current Bitcoin rally relative to gold “a very reassuring move.”
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is calculated as the dollar price per one Bitcoin divided by the dollar price per one ounce of gold. Based on TradingView, this ratio rose to 18.17, reaching the highest level in eight months.
Over the past month, Bitcoin rose by about 22%, while the spot gold price gained only 2%.
As of Tuesday, Bitcoin was traded around the $78,000 mark. Earlier, in the previous week, it had briefly broken above $82,000, but buying pressure failed to hold it there, and the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio emerged as an indicator supporting Wood’s thesis rather than any absolute price levels. During the same period, gold also maintained solid demand, so this change is interpreted as relative strength on the Bitcoin side rather than a collapse of gold’s safe-haven function. It’s also notable that both assets lagged behind this year’s AI-led stock rally.
Read also: XRP price reattempts $1.46 as whales resume buying in September
Bessent’s debt remarks spur support for physical and alternative assets alike
Recent gains in both Bitcoin and gold have been driven by worries about finances across countries. This is because government debt in all major developed countries, except Switzerland, now exceeds 100% of nominal GDP. U.S. Treasury Secretary **Scott Bessent** said at the G20 finance ministers meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, “The world is drowning in debt, and there’s no way out except growth.”
SkyBridge Capital founder **Anthony Scaramucci** called the remark “this year’s best Bitcoin advertising slogan.” Meanwhile, skeptics argue that the rise in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio may simply reflect Bitcoin’s greater volatility, and could be the result of the “currency value dilution” story being priced in faster for Bitcoin than for gold. For those deciding how much to allocate to long-term investments, this volatility gap is said to be far from a trivial variable.
Institutional buying, a test of Wood’s long-term thesis
Even amid choppy market conditions, institutional demand did not waver much. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products in the U.S. recently saw inflows that nearly reached $1 billion in just a single week.
Strategy, a Bitcoin investment strategy manager, disclosed that it bought an additional 4603 Bitcoin at the end of August for about $370 million. As a result, its holdings increased to 845,050 units. However, the company led by **Michael Saylor** paid an average of $8,318 per coin in this purchase, meaning that, based on current prices, it remains in a loss position.
For most of the past year, the opposite comparison held true. After Bitcoin set a new all-time high at around $126,000 in October 2025, it traded mostly below that level.
Looking at performance for all of 2025 alone, Bitcoin is down about 7%, while gold has surged by more than 70%, creating an environment that makes Wood’s “long-term cycle” thesis for Bitcoin far harder to believe.
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