$XAUT
$XAU
🟡 GOLD LOOKS TO RECOVER, BUT THE FED REMAINS THE RISK
Gold is once again trading above $4,370, taking advantage of a slight weakening in the dollar after three straight sessions of declines.
But the outlook is still complicated. 📉
🇺🇸 The Fed is back in the spotlight:
Solid U.S. employment data has increased expectations of a possible rate hike at the September 14–15 meeting. The market is currently pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a hike.
📊 Why does this affect gold?
When interest rates and bond yields rise, interest-bearing assets become more attractive than gold, which does not offer a yield.
🔥 In addition, the Middle East adds pressure:
Brent crude remains near $100 per barrel, keeping inflation risks elevated. More expensive oil could make it harder for the Fed to take a more flexible stance.
🏦 But there is an important factor:
Central banks continue to buy gold. In August, China acquired approximately 650,000 ounces—its largest monthly purchase since 2023.
🔎 Now the market is focused on U.S. inflation.
➡️ Higher-than-expected inflation → more pressure on gold.
➡️ Lower inflation → a greater chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
📌 In short: gold faces near-term pressure from rates, yields, and oil, but central bank buying continues to provide significant structural support.
$XAU
🟡 GOLD LOOKS TO RECOVER, BUT THE FED REMAINS THE RISK
Gold is once again trading above $4,370, taking advantage of a slight weakening in the dollar after three straight sessions of declines.
But the outlook is still complicated. 📉
🇺🇸 The Fed is back in the spotlight:
Solid U.S. employment data has increased expectations of a possible rate hike at the September 14–15 meeting. The market is currently pricing in roughly a 60% chance of a hike.
📊 Why does this affect gold?
When interest rates and bond yields rise, interest-bearing assets become more attractive than gold, which does not offer a yield.
🔥 In addition, the Middle East adds pressure:
Brent crude remains near $100 per barrel, keeping inflation risks elevated. More expensive oil could make it harder for the Fed to take a more flexible stance.
🏦 But there is an important factor:
Central banks continue to buy gold. In August, China acquired approximately 650,000 ounces—its largest monthly purchase since 2023.
🔎 Now the market is focused on U.S. inflation.
➡️ Higher-than-expected inflation → more pressure on gold.
➡️ Lower inflation → a greater chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
📌 In short: gold faces near-term pressure from rates, yields, and oil, but central bank buying continues to provide significant structural support.
