Long-Term US Treasuries Are in Trouble! Over the Past 10 Years, Returns Have Been Only -2%, One of the Worst Records in a Century
For a long time, long-term US Treasuries were seen by many as the “most stable asset,” but over the past 10 years they have turned in an unflattering performance: rolling returns of just -2%, among the worst levels in more than 100 years.
The reasons behind it aren’t complicated.
The United States’ federal debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, while the fiscal deficit continues to widen; at the same time, AI investment is疯狂烧钱, the economy is still growing, and inflation still hasn’t fully returned to target levels.
In this environment, investors naturally ask: with all this borrowing, shouldn’t I be getting a higher interest rate?
So long-term Treasury yields have climbed steadily, with the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 5%. But it’s worth noting that there hasn’t been panic selling in the bond market; overall volatility is even lower than the average level in recent years.
In plain terms, the market may be gradually accepting a reality: the era of low interest rates may really be over, and higher rates could be becoming the new norm.
And this matters a great deal for global equities, gold, and crypto markets. The higher the US Treasury yields, the higher the opportunity cost of capital, and the greater the pressure on risk assets.
What’s truly worth watching next isn’t whether US Treasuries will suddenly collapse, but how global markets will adapt to this “new world of higher rates.” Follow me to keep breaking down the capital logic behind macro trends and crypto markets.$FF $KAT $ZECP.ETF
For a long time, long-term US Treasuries were seen by many as the “most stable asset,” but over the past 10 years they have turned in an unflattering performance: rolling returns of just -2%, among the worst levels in more than 100 years.
The reasons behind it aren’t complicated.
The United States’ federal debt has already surpassed $40 trillion, while the fiscal deficit continues to widen; at the same time, AI investment is疯狂烧钱, the economy is still growing, and inflation still hasn’t fully returned to target levels.
In this environment, investors naturally ask: with all this borrowing, shouldn’t I be getting a higher interest rate?
So long-term Treasury yields have climbed steadily, with the 10-year Treasury yield nearing 5%. But it’s worth noting that there hasn’t been panic selling in the bond market; overall volatility is even lower than the average level in recent years.
In plain terms, the market may be gradually accepting a reality: the era of low interest rates may really be over, and higher rates could be becoming the new norm.
And this matters a great deal for global equities, gold, and crypto markets. The higher the US Treasury yields, the higher the opportunity cost of capital, and the greater the pressure on risk assets.
What’s truly worth watching next isn’t whether US Treasuries will suddenly collapse, but how global markets will adapt to this “new world of higher rates.” Follow me to keep breaking down the capital logic behind macro trends and crypto markets.$FF $KAT $ZECP.ETF
