I saw news from the Middle East this morning—honestly, I’m getting a bit overwhelmed.
The U.S. military directly destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers. The reason: within two days, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used ballistic missiles twice to strike U.S. Navy ships (and they didn’t hit either time). Iran also didn’t hold back—its missiles landed in Jordan within the area targeting U.S. forces, and it even vowed to attack all oil tankers at the ports of Kuwait and Bahrain.
Oil prices are the most honest indicator. Brent has already touched $98; the media is all shouting that it’s nearing $100. Goldman Sachs’ data is even more painful: product oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is down to just 35% of pre-war levels, and crude oil is only at 70%. Saudi Arabia’s August output has fallen off a cliff, and OPEC’s plan to ramp up production has effectively been disrupted.
For $BTC , the situation is quite delicate. Oil prices surge → inflation expectations rebound → bets on Fed easing get squeezed; risk assets face pressure, and tonight the U.S. stock market already sold off as a formality. But on the other hand, the narrative that the “old system isn’t reliable” is strengthening—gold and crypto are both pulling in safe-haven capital, tugging in both directions.
What’s interesting is that despite all this fierce fighting, the U.S. and Iran are still trading negotiation conditions through intermediaries. Nobody wants to fully tear the relationship apart. This kind of market—fighting while negotiating—is the easiest to get whipsawed back and forth, so don’t chase a one-way trade in the short term.
My take: in the short run, $BTC moving with fluctuations in risk assets is normal. If oil truly breaks above 100, the safe-haven narrative will accelerate its switch. Don’t panic, and don’t go all-in.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #中东局势 #原油 #cryptocurrency
The U.S. military directly destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers. The reason: within two days, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps used ballistic missiles twice to strike U.S. Navy ships (and they didn’t hit either time). Iran also didn’t hold back—its missiles landed in Jordan within the area targeting U.S. forces, and it even vowed to attack all oil tankers at the ports of Kuwait and Bahrain.
Oil prices are the most honest indicator. Brent has already touched $98; the media is all shouting that it’s nearing $100. Goldman Sachs’ data is even more painful: product oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is down to just 35% of pre-war levels, and crude oil is only at 70%. Saudi Arabia’s August output has fallen off a cliff, and OPEC’s plan to ramp up production has effectively been disrupted.
For $BTC , the situation is quite delicate. Oil prices surge → inflation expectations rebound → bets on Fed easing get squeezed; risk assets face pressure, and tonight the U.S. stock market already sold off as a formality. But on the other hand, the narrative that the “old system isn’t reliable” is strengthening—gold and crypto are both pulling in safe-haven capital, tugging in both directions.
What’s interesting is that despite all this fierce fighting, the U.S. and Iran are still trading negotiation conditions through intermediaries. Nobody wants to fully tear the relationship apart. This kind of market—fighting while negotiating—is the easiest to get whipsawed back and forth, so don’t chase a one-way trade in the short term.
My take: in the short run, $BTC moving with fluctuations in risk assets is normal. If oil truly breaks above 100, the safe-haven narrative will accelerate its switch. Don’t panic, and don’t go all-in.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #中东局势 #原油 #cryptocurrency