```
📰 Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 9
Warsh Era’s first inaugural central bank weekly opens, **Dove and Hawk duel**: Bowman testifies + CCAR stress testing appear on the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies to Congress — reiterates bank capital / regulatory framework language, bearish risk assets
2. The next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress test — large bank CET1 expectations 11–12%, breaches the threshold and hits bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 deferred weekly report re-issue (7 items including H.4.1, etc.) — temporary disruption to U.S. Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Key numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, incl. 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
SEP terminal rate revised higher + Warsh hawkish tilt = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields skew strong, BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Keep an eye on Bowman’s remarks at 22:00; if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— For detailed reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP calculation)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑See today’s must-watch |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑See today’s must-watch |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officers investigation | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still valid)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, up 40bp implying one more rate hike within the year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording updates: delete “inflation gradually declining”
```
```
ℹ️ 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.18%; the market is repricing for another rate hike in the Warsh era within the year.
```
```
⏰ September 9, 09:30 (CST) · Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market quick overview (September 9, 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $78,702.00 | -0.82% |
| ETH | $2,490.56 | — |
| SOL | $103.44 | — |
| BNB | $750.83 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08998 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.51B
```
📰 Goose Quant AI Morning News · September 9
Warsh Era’s first inaugural central bank weekly opens, **Dove and Hawk duel**: Bowman testifies + CCAR stress testing appear on the same day.
```
```
🎯 What to watch today
1. 22:00 Bowman testifies to Congress — reiterates bank capital / regulatory framework language, bearish risk assets
2. The next day 04:00 CCAR/DFAST stress test — large bank CET1 expectations 11–12%, breaches the threshold and hits bank stocks
3. All day 6/19 deferred weekly report re-issue (7 items including H.4.1, etc.) — temporary disruption to U.S. Treasuries and USD liquidity
```
```
📊 Key numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · Maintain ≈95% for 7/28–29 · Terminal median 3.8% (↑40bp, incl. 1 rate hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto perspective
SEP terminal rate revised higher + Warsh hawkish tilt = DXY and U.S. Treasury yields skew strong, BTC/ETH face upward pressure.
Keep an eye on Bowman’s remarks at 22:00; if he emphasizes “capital adequacy / anti-inflation,” avoid chasing longs in the short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— For detailed reference below ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-year probability matrix (CME futures + SEP calculation)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ----- | ------ | ----- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This week’s schedule (Beijing time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑See today’s must-watch |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress test | 🔴 ↑See today’s must-watch |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS credit officers investigation | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still valid)
· FOMC unanimously holds 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot: 2026 terminal median 3.8%, up 40bp implying one more rate hike within the year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording updates: delete “inflation gradually declining”
```
```
ℹ️ 30-year mortgage rate rises to 7.18%; the market is repricing for another rate hike in the Warsh era within the year.
```
```
⏰ September 9, 09:30 (CST) · Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto market quick overview (September 9, 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $78,702.00 | -0.82% |
| ETH | $2,490.56 | — |
| SOL | $103.44 | — |
| BNB | $750.83 | — |
| DOGE | $0.08998 | — |
BTC 24h trading volume $1.51B
```