BTC falls back to 78,000, and I actually think the biggest mistake people are most likely to make right now is rushing to draw conclusions about the market.
For the past three weeks, ETF inflows have been coming in consistently.
Last week alone, they were close to $1 billion again.
But BTC hasn’t risen. Instead, it has fallen back below 80,000.
Some people will say:
“With so much money coming in and it can’t move the price up, it’s clearly weak.”
Others will say:
“The institutions have been buying. This is just a shakeout—this is your chance to get on board.”
I think both of these conclusions are coming too early.
Because the real stress test hasn’t arrived yet.
This week, PPI and CPI will be released soon, and right after that comes the FOMC.
At the moment, I actually hope BTC gets hit again by macro pressures.
Not because I want it to drop.
But because only then can I see one thing clearly:
Whether that earlier batch of ETF money was truly patient incremental buying, or whether it was short-term liquidity that will retreat as soon as the market faces a slight headwind.
If the inflation data comes in hot and rate expectations continue to deteriorate,
yet BTC shows no obvious breakdown,
and the ETF funds also don’t show consecutive outflows,
then I’ll be more bullish than if BTC simply surged straight to 85,000.
Because that would prove something different from:
“People are willing to chase the rally.”
It would instead show:
“Even when conditions worsen, there are still people willing to step in and hold.”
On the other hand, if macro pressure weighs on the market and the ETFs start to withdraw, while BTC’s structure is also broken at the same time,
then that so-called “funds confirmation” from the past few days—I would actively reduce its weight.
So over the next couple of days, I won’t feel pessimistic just because BTC drops to 78,000.
And I won’t shout “opportunity is here” just because ETF inflows increase.
What I truly want to see now is: after the market gets hit, who’s still willing to stay.
Often,
when the wind is at your back, rising prices don’t tell you how strong the market really is.
Only in headwinds do you find out.
$BTC #Crypto
For the past three weeks, ETF inflows have been coming in consistently.
Last week alone, they were close to $1 billion again.
But BTC hasn’t risen. Instead, it has fallen back below 80,000.
Some people will say:
“With so much money coming in and it can’t move the price up, it’s clearly weak.”
Others will say:
“The institutions have been buying. This is just a shakeout—this is your chance to get on board.”
I think both of these conclusions are coming too early.
Because the real stress test hasn’t arrived yet.
This week, PPI and CPI will be released soon, and right after that comes the FOMC.
At the moment, I actually hope BTC gets hit again by macro pressures.
Not because I want it to drop.
But because only then can I see one thing clearly:
Whether that earlier batch of ETF money was truly patient incremental buying, or whether it was short-term liquidity that will retreat as soon as the market faces a slight headwind.
If the inflation data comes in hot and rate expectations continue to deteriorate,
yet BTC shows no obvious breakdown,
and the ETF funds also don’t show consecutive outflows,
then I’ll be more bullish than if BTC simply surged straight to 85,000.
Because that would prove something different from:
“People are willing to chase the rally.”
It would instead show:
“Even when conditions worsen, there are still people willing to step in and hold.”
On the other hand, if macro pressure weighs on the market and the ETFs start to withdraw, while BTC’s structure is also broken at the same time,
then that so-called “funds confirmation” from the past few days—I would actively reduce its weight.
So over the next couple of days, I won’t feel pessimistic just because BTC drops to 78,000.
And I won’t shout “opportunity is here” just because ETF inflows increase.
What I truly want to see now is: after the market gets hit, who’s still willing to stay.
Often,
when the wind is at your back, rising prices don’t tell you how strong the market really is.
Only in headwinds do you find out.
$BTC #Crypto