Review one data point: on the 19th, just before this wave of breakout, spot demand showed its first reversal in nearly six months—starting to sprout. And the latest situation is very similar to that big surge in 2023 when price broke upward over the spot demand: back then, spot demand clearly rushed in as price broke above; when it was pulled to around 24,000, demand slowed down. After oscillating for two or three weeks, there was a pullback—whose key level met exactly the most important pivot for the early bull stage: the 365-day moving average and the 50-week moving average, which were both clustered around 25,000 at the time. Comparing that to today’s $BTC , the position and structure are almost the same script. So the most worth expecting right now is that it can trend in a downward oscillation and carve out a base around the mid-80,000s, with the timeline reaching roughly the end of the year—at which point it may likely form a stair-step rally. You can also interpret it as a bull flag or a larger-period head-and-shoulders bottom. The odds of these scenarios are all far higher than a fresh drop back to 60,000, or a massive consolidation range between 60,000 and 80,000 followed by a final decline.