๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Oil is already above $100 if you buy the actual barrels instead of the headline...

-Brent trades near $97, but Dubai cash hit $105.10 Monday and Oman futures $104.54, the grades Asian refiners actually pay for

-Spot premiums for November cargoes run $19 to $20 above quotes, back at April's crisis levels

-Middle East crude shipments are at about 11 million barrels a day against 18 million before the war, per Argus

-No supertanker has visibly left Hormuz since September 2, per Kpler, with flows below 2 million barrels a day since fighting resumed

-Saudi exports from Yanbu on the Red Sea fell to a six-month low of 1.4 million barrels a day in August under the Houthi blockade, down from 3.9 million

-Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal more than doubled its volumes as Gulf oil rerouted around both chokepoints

-China cut seaborne crude imports from over 11 million barrels a day in February to 7 million and holds an estimated 1.17 billion barrels in reserve

-Global demand destruction stands at 3.5 million barrels a day, with China more than half of it

-Morgan Stanley now forecasts Brent averaging $100 in the fourth quarter

The benchmark is calm because China stopped buying and the world is burning through stockpiles, which is a cushion made of empty warehouses and idle factories.

Argus economist David Fyfe says the diesel market is screaming shortage, and American diesel already set a record.

Source: Reuters, Argus, Kpler / Writer: Daniel

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