1. A fast track through crypto market news
1. Top trader Pentoshi
Updated at 10:16 on September 8, Beijing time:
On the discussion of $Pons. Someone sent me this chart and asked what I think about it.
While that’s true, Crypto Twitter (CT) often extrapolates revenue trends far, far into the distant future. But I do believe there’s a chance it could develop some degree of sustainability. Most of the people saying this now haven’t participated in the earlier run-up.
At least, people are trading a token that has some underlying value. Yes, revenue is unlikely to continue at the current pace indefinitely, but that doesn’t mean this situation can’t last longer. Similarly, it doesn’t mean there’s no risk—such as other competitors entering this chain, and so on. Of course, there are many risks. The prices of many things are higher, but they’re actually of zero value.
Overall, the market is like a huge pendulum, constantly swinging back and forth between extremes. Personally, I’m happy to see the market maintain this kind of volatility. We’re here for that. Maybe this time is really different—I don’t know.
Is it overvalued? No one knows. Are they doing exceptionally well right now? Yes. Can they keep performing like this forever? Maybe not.
In short, this chart clearly shows what has happened in the past, but the sample size is very limited. I think next we’ll see it keep swinging between overvaluation and undervaluation toward both extremes. My view is to enjoy this volatility and profit from it as much as possible.
(Pentoshi thinks PONS can’t maintain the current upward momentum; in the end it will just oscillate back and forth between oversold and overbought. Catch the trend for swings—don’t top up your faith.)
2. Top trader Willy Woo
Updated at 18:34 on September 8 (Beijing time):
About that “mythical-level super cycle” that never came… this is the first time I’ve seen structural data begin to hint that it might be forming.
Structural data…
Liquidity Cycle
Our internal BTC liquidity model shows → In a normal cycle bottom, we usually expect a deeper low. This time, such a shallow low looks more like a mid-cycle pullback in a bull market.
Risk Model
Tracking buyer investor liquidity → Structural bottoms usually form during a sustained downtrend and keep sliding all the way down to zero. This is the real bottom (probability >90%), not a bull trap. Therefore, the scenario that this is merely a mid-cycle rebound within a bear market can be ruled out.
Cost Basis
All past cycle bottoms (2012, 2015, 2019, 2022) have shown something like this: when the recent investors’ cost basis falls below the unified cost basis of all investors, buy orders start coming in. → But this time, when the structural bottom formed, the two never intersected—once again, it looks more like a mid-cycle pullback in a bull market.
Some model information that we kept for subscribers has already been leaked here, but this topic is still worth a deeper analysis for now.
Also, compared with the global macro environment/stock market, there is a similar market structure like this.
(Willy Woo thinks this drop from 126K to 58K may just be a correction within a bull market.)
3. Trader Vivian
Updated at 22:43 on September 8 (Beijing time):
Temporary update for traders:
There’s a bit of buy pressure here, but nothing unusual. We’re still below the PDL 79K level. If it reclaims the VWAP 78.5K, BTC may retest 79K before the next drop.
This doesn’t match our trading style. The stop-loss for ETH is already close enough—let it keep running. If the 15-minute timeframe reclaims 78.5K, we will close JASMY, and then open a new position again.
As of now, buy pressure is not enough to change our bearish bias. But 78.5K is the key threshold for intraday stop-loss on shorts. Once it reclaims 78.5K, we will stop out and exit. Shorts may still eventually play out, but if 78.5K is reclaimed again, this price action won’t match our risk management approach.
(Vivian currently holds a short position and plans to stop out if the 15-minute candlestick closes above 78,500.)
4. Wave Theory — Liu Yudong
BTC September 8, 2026
Blue 5-1 has finished. Assuming we’re currently in a Blue 5-2 retracement,
Yesterday I said: “The blue point started without an upward impulsive wave; I don’t think it’s the end of 5-2.”
As expected, it broke below the blue level today. It has entered the 78,535–78,038 range.
The current low of 78,146 is not the bottom yet.
If it doesn’t break below the monitoring point at 77,022, it may continue developing as 5-3/5-4/5-5.
If it breaks below 77,022, then the entire blue line ends—no 5-3/5-4/5-5. Then it will pull back across the entire blue line.
(Liu Yudong believes that if BTC breaks below 77,022, the downside will expand. Today’s low was 77,600, and it hasn’t broken that monitored level yet.)
II. Summary
The mainstream and altcoin rally that was hot a few days ago has cooled off. Those bloggers are not active today either. There’s no reliable analysis left.
At present, the big picture remains broadly bullish ($BTC ), but in the short term it’s relatively cautious: we believe it will pull back. For reference, you can look at the 77,022 level mentioned by Liu Yudong. However, the direction of the market will be determined by upcoming data like CPI over the next few days. Before the data is released, remember to take profits on longs in batches and avoid risk.
Declaration:
The above information is for reference only and is not trading advice. Trading involves high risk; participate with caution.
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