$BNC This counts as a minor support. Our original plan was to do a pullback to 6, which is short by more than 0.1. After that, the play can continue by waiting for the price—no rush.
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--Bullish
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Bullish$BNC Now let me give you a deep analysis of how BNC might move next.
Current latest data:
funding: +2.0%.
Large holder long/short ratio: 70% longs, 30% shorts.
For regular accounts, the long/short ratio is close to 1:1, with longs slightly higher: 53.2% longs, 46.8% shorts.
Order book data: 0.96, meaning the active sell side is higher.
Liquidations in the last 24 hours: longs about $310K, shorts about $3.0M.
OI: in the last 24 hours 24.1%, 4H 6.74%, 1H 1.34%. A very interesting combination. It suggests that profitable positions are being closed out, liquidations are happening, and leverage is being reduced actively.
Data breakdown: If you understand these metrics, you’ll see that the market maker’s first round of pumping up plus killing the shorts has already been completed. The liquidation amount for shorts is roughly ten times that of longs. Based on the current data, if the market maker wants to keep making money, they wouldn’t simply pump straight up. If they did, they’d allow many longs to become profitable—too heavy of a train is hard to pull and not worth it.
If I were the market maker, how would I maximize my profit?: First do a dead-cat bounce, then kill the longs. Current price is 5. I wouldn’t keep dumping lower. If I continued to sell off aggressively, the money I make would be much less. I’d slowly pull it up to 5.5, then quickly push it to around 6, so longs keep entering. Finally, I’d do a real leverage wipeout and smash it down to around 4.5. This way, the market maker’s profit would be maximized.
Of course, if you’re at 5 and you just go long now with a stop loss at 4.5, whether that price breaks or whether there will be another push up depends on the data at the time. For smaller positions, you can keep playing—just smashing the market isn’t very beneficial to this market maker, and could even be a loss.
Current latest data:
funding: +2.0%.
Large holder long/short ratio: 70% longs, 30% shorts.
For regular accounts, the long/short ratio is close to 1:1, with longs slightly higher: 53.2% longs, 46.8% shorts.
Order book data: 0.96, meaning the active sell side is higher.
Liquidations in the last 24 hours: longs about $310K, shorts about $3.0M.
OI: in the last 24 hours 24.1%, 4H 6.74%, 1H 1.34%. A very interesting combination. It suggests that profitable positions are being closed out, liquidations are happening, and leverage is being reduced actively.
Data breakdown: If you understand these metrics, you’ll see that the market maker’s first round of pumping up plus killing the shorts has already been completed. The liquidation amount for shorts is roughly ten times that of longs. Based on the current data, if the market maker wants to keep making money, they wouldn’t simply pump straight up. If they did, they’d allow many longs to become profitable—too heavy of a train is hard to pull and not worth it.
If I were the market maker, how would I maximize my profit?: First do a dead-cat bounce, then kill the longs. Current price is 5. I wouldn’t keep dumping lower. If I continued to sell off aggressively, the money I make would be much less. I’d slowly pull it up to 5.5, then quickly push it to around 6, so longs keep entering. Finally, I’d do a real leverage wipeout and smash it down to around 4.5. This way, the market maker’s profit would be maximized.
Of course, if you’re at 5 and you just go long now with a stop loss at 4.5, whether that price breaks or whether there will be another push up depends on the data at the time. For smaller positions, you can keep playing—just smashing the market isn’t very beneficial to this market maker, and could even be a loss.