【SOL has been grinding at 102 for almost a week—what big move are you holding back?】
Honestly, these days I’ve been watching SOL a bit too long. It’s not the kind of boredom that feels hopeless—it’s the kind of boredom where you’re thinking, “Come on, give me a direction already.”
At the 102 level, you could say it’s weak—100 held for several days and didn’t break. You could also say it’s strong—107 even got touched, but it still couldn’t make it through. Isn’t this exactly a classic squeeze?
I checked the 4-hour structure: the highs are getting lower and the lows are getting flatter. That’s a converging triangle—textbook “the calm before the direction is chosen.” Think back: before SOL’s rally in 2021, didn’t it also grind like this?
Both bulls and bears are holding their breath right now.
What the bulls are looking at is on-chain data getting better—Fomo’s daily revenue these past couple of days has surpassed Pump.fun. That suggests on-chain heat is still there. The memecoin crowd is back in the game too. Solana just upgraded its transaction processing capability, meaning it can run more complex operations going forward—long term, these are positive factors.
What the bears are looking at is simple as well: volume is increasing, but the price just won’t go up—that’s “can’t rise even though it should.” Also, the drop from the ATH is 65%. Over-sold is over-sold, but being oversold doesn’t automatically mean the bottom is in.
So who moves first?
I lean toward the market continuing to grind in the short term. Why? Because sentiment is greedy right now, but the FNG has been “dull” at high levels for a stretch. In situations like that, it’s often easiest for the market to grind and then suddenly flip into a decline. But this view could be overturned—if there’s an unexpected catalyst from the news, or BTC gives direction, then the compressed move might release all at once.
Putting it into real terms: whether this wave of Fomo heat can keep going determines whether on-chain activity can keep fueling SOL. If it’s only short-term memecoin speculation, then fundamental improvement is basically a false premise. But if this wave can attract more capital to settle into the Solana ecosystem, then sooner or later the grinding action will have to choose an upward direction.
I do have a position, but I haven’t added. The reason is simple: even though I’m itching to do something, the muscle memory from 2017 tells me—when the market is choppy and ranging, the biggest mistake is to mess around.
What’s your mindset right now? If you have a position, are you holding tight waiting for a breakout, or are you planning to run first and ask questions later?
Honestly, these days I’ve been watching SOL a bit too long. It’s not the kind of boredom that feels hopeless—it’s the kind of boredom where you’re thinking, “Come on, give me a direction already.”
At the 102 level, you could say it’s weak—100 held for several days and didn’t break. You could also say it’s strong—107 even got touched, but it still couldn’t make it through. Isn’t this exactly a classic squeeze?
I checked the 4-hour structure: the highs are getting lower and the lows are getting flatter. That’s a converging triangle—textbook “the calm before the direction is chosen.” Think back: before SOL’s rally in 2021, didn’t it also grind like this?
Both bulls and bears are holding their breath right now.
What the bulls are looking at is on-chain data getting better—Fomo’s daily revenue these past couple of days has surpassed Pump.fun. That suggests on-chain heat is still there. The memecoin crowd is back in the game too. Solana just upgraded its transaction processing capability, meaning it can run more complex operations going forward—long term, these are positive factors.
What the bears are looking at is simple as well: volume is increasing, but the price just won’t go up—that’s “can’t rise even though it should.” Also, the drop from the ATH is 65%. Over-sold is over-sold, but being oversold doesn’t automatically mean the bottom is in.
So who moves first?
I lean toward the market continuing to grind in the short term. Why? Because sentiment is greedy right now, but the FNG has been “dull” at high levels for a stretch. In situations like that, it’s often easiest for the market to grind and then suddenly flip into a decline. But this view could be overturned—if there’s an unexpected catalyst from the news, or BTC gives direction, then the compressed move might release all at once.
Putting it into real terms: whether this wave of Fomo heat can keep going determines whether on-chain activity can keep fueling SOL. If it’s only short-term memecoin speculation, then fundamental improvement is basically a false premise. But if this wave can attract more capital to settle into the Solana ecosystem, then sooner or later the grinding action will have to choose an upward direction.
I do have a position, but I haven’t added. The reason is simple: even though I’m itching to do something, the muscle memory from 2017 tells me—when the market is choppy and ranging, the biggest mistake is to mess around.
What’s your mindset right now? If you have a position, are you holding tight waiting for a breakout, or are you planning to run first and ask questions later?