🔽 The US stock market opens after a three-day holiday weekend amid threats of rising inflation and an increase in the Fed rate—this could seriously hit both stocks and Bitcoin. The liquidation of the September level at $174+ million has already been priced in; the unrealized losses of BTC holders have reached 25% (for comparison, in past bearish phases it was above 60%).
🇮🇷 Iran continues to escalate: more waves of cruise missiles and Shahed-136 drones from Sireka toward ships escorted by the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs warns that oil could jump to $120 per barrel if attacks on shipping continue to intensify (currently Brent is around $97, and WTI is $93). If exports normalize, prices could, conversely, pull back to $80.
💴 The yen has sharply strengthened; USD/JPY has fallen below 153 — traders are massively closing carry positions amid rising (up to 80%) expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on September 18.
🍁 Canada, starting today, is imposing mirror tariffs on American goods ($27.6 billion) in response to Trump’s announced tariff increase on Canadian autos and steel.
🔮 Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes isn’t losing optimism: in his scenario, a full-scale financial crisis in Europe or Japan would force central banks to sharply expand money supply, which could drive BTC to $250K–$500K within this cycle, and in the longer term to $750K–$1 million. Among altcoins, he highlights ETH and ENA.
💰 Fresh update: the CFTC asked the court to dismiss CME’s lawsuit challenging approval of perpetual bitcoin contracts on Kalshi — the dispute is whether they should be treated as futures or swaps. And Senator Cynthia Lummis warned that if the CLARITY Act isn’t passed now, the next chance could be as late as 2030 — pressure on the Senate is clearly increasing ahead of the September 15 vote.