The Rollup podcast host Andy said on X that the CLARITY Act has almost no chance of passing, despite Polymarket showing an 18% probability. He said the actual odds may be closer to 3% to 5%, and that the NO side may be worth watching.

According to Odaily, Andy said Washington insiders broadly believe the bill cannot pass, but have not said so publicly because the industry has already spent tens of millions of dollars and 18 months pushing it forward. He added that Democrats have not received a substantive answer to ethics questions about U.S. President Donald Trump’s crypto-related interests.

Andy also said the CLARITY Act could later be broken into several separate bills focused on specific crypto sectors, including stablecoins, tokenization, perpetual contracts, and innovation exemptions for prediction markets. He said lawmakers currently appear more inclined to take a narrower, more detailed approach than to advance a broad crypto bill.