$BTC Wall Street has once again turned more aggressive with regard to expectations for the Federal Reserve.
UBS changed its stance and now sees two rate hikes.
25 basis points in September and another 25 in December!
Until now, they still expected no changes throughout the year.
The rate-hike playbook is back and once again pressuring risk assets!
UBS Global Wealth Management recently updated its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s path and now expects 25-basis-point hikes in September and December 2026, respectively, with a cumulative tightening of 50 basis points over the year—fully overturning its prior view of “no changes to rates during the year.” Following last week’s 162k new U.S. non-farm payroll jobs—far above expectations—the market has also clearly increased the probability of a September hike.
This line affects Crypto very directly: if expectations for rate hikes continue being revised upward, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are likely to remain strong, and high-beta assets such as BTC and technology stocks will continue to face a macro headwind. Going forward, CPI, PCE, and Fed statements will determine whether these two hikes can genuinely be fully priced in by the market.
From “no movement all year” to “two consecutive hikes,” the surprise in expectations is enormous.
$BTC
$AAPLB
UBS changed its stance and now sees two rate hikes.
25 basis points in September and another 25 in December!
Until now, they still expected no changes throughout the year.
The rate-hike playbook is back and once again pressuring risk assets!
UBS Global Wealth Management recently updated its forecast for the Federal Reserve’s path and now expects 25-basis-point hikes in September and December 2026, respectively, with a cumulative tightening of 50 basis points over the year—fully overturning its prior view of “no changes to rates during the year.” Following last week’s 162k new U.S. non-farm payroll jobs—far above expectations—the market has also clearly increased the probability of a September hike.
This line affects Crypto very directly: if expectations for rate hikes continue being revised upward, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar are likely to remain strong, and high-beta assets such as BTC and technology stocks will continue to face a macro headwind. Going forward, CPI, PCE, and Fed statements will determine whether these two hikes can genuinely be fully priced in by the market.
From “no movement all year” to “two consecutive hikes,” the surprise in expectations is enormous.
$BTC
$AAPLB
