As of September 7, 2026, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points. The market is currently pricing in about a 56% probability of a 25bp hike and a 44% probability of no hike.
The upcoming U.S. CPI is crucial. If CPI is clearly below expectations, the probability of a rate hike could quickly drop from the current ~56% to below 50%;
If CPI meets expectations, I’m more inclined to believe the market will continue to hover around a roughly 50/50 split, and crypto will return to focusing on technical factors;
If CPI is significantly higher than expectations, the probability of a rate hike could move further toward 70% or even higher. This would be a fairly clear macro headwind for BTC/ETH.#美联储何时降息？ #美联储加息预期
The upcoming U.S. CPI is crucial. If CPI is clearly below expectations, the probability of a rate hike could quickly drop from the current ~56% to below 50%;
If CPI meets expectations, I’m more inclined to believe the market will continue to hover around a roughly 50/50 split, and crypto will return to focusing on technical factors;
If CPI is significantly higher than expectations, the probability of a rate hike could move further toward 70% or even higher. This would be a fairly clear macro headwind for BTC/ETH.#美联储何时降息？ #美联储加息预期
