On September 9, Apple takes the stage with one of the most important launches of recent years.
And this time the reason isn’t only iPhone 18 Pro.
The market is waiting for the first foldable iPhone, which may be called iPhone Ultra. iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max are also expected, along with new Apple Watch and AirPods. And an ordinary iPhone 18, according to current data, may be pushed back to spring 2027.
But for me, the most interesting part starts after the presentation.
Because AAPL is no longer near the highs.
On Friday, the shares closed at $319.97, down 2.51% for the day.
At the same time, the 52-week high is $344.57.
So the market is no longer just waiting for a new iPhone.
He is trying to figure out whether the launch is enough to justify Apple’s current valuation.
And that’s where an interesting dilemma appears.
A foldable iPhone could become a huge catalyst.
Analysts expect a price above $2,000, and some estimates reach $2,500.
Morgan Stanley calls the upcoming launch one of the most important for Apple in the past decade.
But there’s a catch.
A more expensive iPhone is good for the average selling price.
But is that good for the number of devices sold?
On top of that, there’s another problem: due to memory shortages and high demand from the AI sector, the cost of components is rising. For the iPhone 18 Pro, a potential price increase of roughly $200 is already being discussed.
In other words, Apple could deliver a stronger product, but at the same time put a significantly higher price tag in front of the buyer.
And that’s exactly what I want to see on September 9.
Not just “is the new iPhone cool?”
A:
or is the market ready to pay more for Apple?
Because if the presentation exceeds expectations, AAPL could return to $330+, and then again test the area of the historical high.
And if most of the good news is already priced in— I wouldn’t be surprised by a reaction based on the “buy the rumor, sell the news” principle.
Especially since KeyBanc is already warning: price hikes could become a negative catalyst for shares if the market starts fearing a drop in demand or pressure on margins.
So my main scenario right now is simple:
I don’t want to guess where AAPL will move before the presentation.
I want to see how the market reacts to expectations that are already known—when they turn into an actual product and a real price.
Because Apple can showcase its most interesting iPhone in years.
And still fall.
That’s the reaction of the stock after September 9 that will show what the market truly wanted.
Not financial advice. This is my market analysis.
