Daily share
First, let’s talk about the short term. The short term is still in a consolidation phase. The expectation here is that it still needs to pull back to around 78,000 or 77,500. After the pullback, this week should still need another push upward toward the previous high area. Unless the 76,300 level is broken directly in the short term, we can’t say it won’t surge again.
Let’s talk again about the medium-line trend. Since the rebound starting from 57,800, first of all, this is a rebound at the daily chart level.
According to our analysis in July and August, after this daily-chart-level rebound ends, in September to October, it will most likely need to move downward once more—a daily-chart-level decline—down toward around 50,000, and possibly even lower. I have never given up on this view.
But now BTC’s high is already pressing toward 82850. If it breaks through, the viewpoint above needs to change—you definitely need to consider exiting the weekly-level rebound early. Then it might continue to rebound upward along the trend for another segment, for example reaching 85000 or even higher. If it doesn’t break through, you can continue to stick with the previous view.
But many people have a misconception about this: they think that after breaking 82850, the whole of September will just keep rising, October will keep rising too, and November will keep rising as well. It’s like once it breaks, it won’t fall anymore.
Actually, once it breaks 82850, the rebound likely won’t last too long—it will end the daily-level rebound and then start the next daily-level decline. The daily rebound in September will most likely end.
It’s just that no matter whether it breaks through or not, the strength of the next daily-level decline will differ. If it doesn’t break 82850, then the next daily-level decline most likely will still go to around 50,000. But if it breaks 82850, then the next daily-level decline might only reach levels like 72,000, 70,000, or 68,000.
So, for BTC over 80,000, it is not a place to go all-in on a medium- to long-term spot position. Above 80,000, it should be a “sell the higher it goes” situation. Even if you want to enter a spot position around 80,000, you can only buy after breaking upward, then take some profits and run. The real opportunity for a medium- to long-term entry is the position after the next daily-level decline ends.
Medium- and short-term trend direction
4h cycle main direction: currently in the 7th segment of the 4h-level rebound within the daily-level rebound.
1h cycle direction: in the short term, it may first consolidate and then form a 1h-level center.
BTC short-term
Because market changes quickly in the short term, the article can only make a guess about how the situation changes at the moment it’s published. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market changes—this is only for reference.
1H:
1）For the short term here, look at whether the 1h-level pullback will revisit the 78000 area.
2）For now, the inclination is that over the next few days, price may continue to oscillate back and forth within the 77000~81000 range to build an 1h-level center.
3）See whether it surges again around 82000 this weekend.
4）If it falls back below 76300 again, the daily-level rebound may be directly brought to an end.
5）Whether or not the short term breaks 82850, the daily-level rebound starting from 57800 will most likely end in September. After it ends, we’ll look at the daily-level decline.
15M:
1）On the 15-minute timeframe, the consolidation time here has already been quite long. See whether it will drop again toward the 78000 area or below.
2）If it breaks back above 80599 again, then look for a 1h-level rebound targeting around 81000.
ETH
1）In the past half month, ETH has mainly oscillated repeatedly within the 2400~2550 range, and things are still not very clear for the moment.
2）For the short term, first see whether it has a 1h-level drop and pullback to around 2400.
3）The main resistance above is in the 2530~2550 range. Only if it breaks through this resistance zone would there be a possibility of pushing toward 2600.
4）For the short-term 15-minute rebound: if it doesn’t break above 2520, it will likely continue to move downward, with a 1h-level decline.