ARB drops 15% in a day, yet contract open interest increases by 18.3%. The quadrant is directly labeled bear_strong—people adding leverage to shorts during a selloff are not “buying the dip”; they’re actively opening new short positions.
On the other side, the whale accounts have a long allocation of 56.8%. In just 7 hours, accounts went on to add longs, increasing by another 19.4%. Spot capital flows over the past 3 hours show 12 consecutive positive candles. It looks like big players are picking up the supply, but the price is grinding at 0.165. There’s only 3% left before it reaches the one-day low of 0.160. The money being absorbed is not small, yet the price still isn’t being pushed up.
The price is lying below the 15-minute dual moving averages (0.17/0.18). The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both net short. The basis turns negative, and spot 15-minute large orders show a net outflow of 340,000. The evidence for longs is all “someone is buying,” while the evidence for shorts is all “the structure is moving downward.” In this setup, I’m with the structure.
Attitude: short. Enter short on a pullback to the 0.17 moving-average area, then add if it breaks below 0.160, looking for acceleration. When to turn long: if the price holds above 0.17, spot’s 3-hour inflows are still coming in, and OI stops increasing—on that day, I’ll change my tone.
#arb $ARB
On the other side, the whale accounts have a long allocation of 56.8%. In just 7 hours, accounts went on to add longs, increasing by another 19.4%. Spot capital flows over the past 3 hours show 12 consecutive positive candles. It looks like big players are picking up the supply, but the price is grinding at 0.165. There’s only 3% left before it reaches the one-day low of 0.160. The money being absorbed is not small, yet the price still isn’t being pushed up.
The price is lying below the 15-minute dual moving averages (0.17/0.18). The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both net short. The basis turns negative, and spot 15-minute large orders show a net outflow of 340,000. The evidence for longs is all “someone is buying,” while the evidence for shorts is all “the structure is moving downward.” In this setup, I’m with the structure.
Attitude: short. Enter short on a pullback to the 0.17 moving-average area, then add if it breaks below 0.160, looking for acceleration. When to turn long: if the price holds above 0.17, spot’s 3-hour inflows are still coming in, and OI stops increasing—on that day, I’ll change my tone.
#arb $ARB
