I’ve found that most people’s thinking is always affected by short-term market fluctuations—like boiling a frog in warm water.
For example, when there’s continued selling, they shout that the bears are here: Bitcoin at 35,000, Ethereum at 800. When there’s a sustained rally, they loudly claim the bull is back: ZEC surging to 3,000. In reality, they don’t really understand what the current market is.
I think we’re still in a bear market, already in its late stage. But it’s impossible for us to move directly into a bull market like that. There will still be a headless-chicken drop—a drop steep enough to make people feel desperate. Otherwise, how else would you force retail investors to give up their holdings?
With the situation still unclear, going all-in is unwise. What you see looks like adding to positions with borrowed funds. Whether long or short, it basically means getting stuck holding the bag for a long time. If you run into a sudden wick, you can’t avoid getting liquidated.
Trading is just like this: the major trend can’t be reversed. Getting the direction wrong isn’t the scary part. What’s scary is stubbornly holding on. If you can push through, then it’s fine. If you can’t, then you end up at zero.
For example, when there’s continued selling, they shout that the bears are here: Bitcoin at 35,000, Ethereum at 800. When there’s a sustained rally, they loudly claim the bull is back: ZEC surging to 3,000. In reality, they don’t really understand what the current market is.
I think we’re still in a bear market, already in its late stage. But it’s impossible for us to move directly into a bull market like that. There will still be a headless-chicken drop—a drop steep enough to make people feel desperate. Otherwise, how else would you force retail investors to give up their holdings?
With the situation still unclear, going all-in is unwise. What you see looks like adding to positions with borrowed funds. Whether long or short, it basically means getting stuck holding the bag for a long time. If you run into a sudden wick, you can’t avoid getting liquidated.
Trading is just like this: the major trend can’t be reversed. Getting the direction wrong isn’t the scary part. What’s scary is stubbornly holding on. If you can push through, then it’s fine. If you can’t, then you end up at zero.
