#伊朗称袭击3艘美舰3艘油轮
U.S.-Iran war escalates, oil prices may once again spiral out of control
The level of mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran has clearly increased: the U.S. military previously struck 3 Iranian oil tankers, and Iran then claimed to have struck 3 U.S. ships and 3 oil tankers, and has begun warning vessels near the Strait of Hormuz to avoid the "illegal route." There are still discrepancies between the two sides' claims, but commercial shipping has already been directly drawn into the military conflict.
The market's first reaction was very direct: Brent rose 1.25% to $97.48, and WTI rose to $92.62; over the past 10 days, only about 10 cargo ships per day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz on average, the lowest level since May.
This is actually even more troublesome for BTC. After a strong nonfarm payrolls report, BTC has already fallen below $80,000. Continued gains in oil prices mean inflationary pressure is coming back, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's room to ease will be further squeezed.
So what is being traded now is actually a chain reaction:
U.S.-Iran escalation → Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption → oil prices approaching $100 → rising inflation expectations → pressure on rate-cutting/easing expectations → pressure on BTC and other risk assets.
Whether oil prices can break above $100 is more important than "how many ships Iran actually hit." Once crude oil regains a foothold above $100, the macro trading logic may switch from "is employment strong or not" to "will energy inflation force the Fed to turn more hawkish."
U.S.-Iran war escalates, oil prices may once again spiral out of control
The level of mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran has clearly increased: the U.S. military previously struck 3 Iranian oil tankers, and Iran then claimed to have struck 3 U.S. ships and 3 oil tankers, and has begun warning vessels near the Strait of Hormuz to avoid the "illegal route." There are still discrepancies between the two sides' claims, but commercial shipping has already been directly drawn into the military conflict.
The market's first reaction was very direct: Brent rose 1.25% to $97.48, and WTI rose to $92.62; over the past 10 days, only about 10 cargo ships per day have passed through the Strait of Hormuz on average, the lowest level since May.
This is actually even more troublesome for BTC. After a strong nonfarm payrolls report, BTC has already fallen below $80,000. Continued gains in oil prices mean inflationary pressure is coming back, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve's room to ease will be further squeezed.
So what is being traded now is actually a chain reaction:
U.S.-Iran escalation → Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption → oil prices approaching $100 → rising inflation expectations → pressure on rate-cutting/easing expectations → pressure on BTC and other risk assets.
Whether oil prices can break above $100 is more important than "how many ships Iran actually hit." Once crude oil regains a foothold above $100, the macro trading logic may switch from "is employment strong or not" to "will energy inflation force the Fed to turn more hawkish."