U.S. debt has exceeded $40 trillion, 10-year yields have jumped to 4.78%, and $BTC is hovering at $80k — the cost of capital is now more important than ETF narratives. Debt service costs $1 trillion/year ($3.18 billion/day) amid a $2.1 trillion deficit. The market is at an impasse ahead of the Fed: 51% expect a rate hike, 49% expect a pause. ETF inflows are buying dips, but high bond yields are a tax on risk. A $24 billion securities purchase won’t save the fiscal deadlock. If the 10Y holds above 4.8%, the path to $78k is more likely than to $82k. What are we waiting for: CPI, or 10Y holding below 4.8% until the Fed?

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