The two metrics everyone's worried about—rates and inflation—aren't actually that scary when you zoom out.
Yes, the 10-year yield is at 4.8%. Yes, CPI is still above 2%. But context matters.
The 10-year ripped from 0.3% to 5% between 2020 and 2023—the fastest move ever. The economy didn't break. Since then, it's been rangebound between 3.5% and 5% for three years. That's normal. The 100-year average is 4.7%. The 50-year average is 5.7%. We're not in some danger zone.
Same story with inflation. CPI went from 0.1% to 9.1% in two years. The economy survived that stress test too. Now it's at 3.4%, down from 4.2% just months ago. The 100-year average? 3.3%. The 50-year average? 3.6%. We're basically at trend.
The market loves to panic over headlines, but the data says we're operating within normal ranges. If you survived 2020–2023, this is nothing. The real question isn't whether these metrics are concerning—it's whether the market is pricing in too much fear or not enough opportunity.
Yes, the 10-year yield is at 4.8%. Yes, CPI is still above 2%. But context matters.
The 10-year ripped from 0.3% to 5% between 2020 and 2023—the fastest move ever. The economy didn't break. Since then, it's been rangebound between 3.5% and 5% for three years. That's normal. The 100-year average is 4.7%. The 50-year average is 5.7%. We're not in some danger zone.
Same story with inflation. CPI went from 0.1% to 9.1% in two years. The economy survived that stress test too. Now it's at 3.4%, down from 4.2% just months ago. The 100-year average? 3.3%. The 50-year average? 3.6%. We're basically at trend.
The market loves to panic over headlines, but the data says we're operating within normal ranges. If you survived 2020–2023, this is nothing. The real question isn't whether these metrics are concerning—it's whether the market is pricing in too much fear or not enough opportunity.