HYPE keeps hitting new highs, nearing $90, with a market cap surpassing $22 billion. a16z’s 5.2 million token holdings are already showing paper gains of nearly $100 million.

If you put it plainly, the Hyperliquid track is essentially one question—can it steal the derivatives business from centralized exchanges?

And as things stand, the momentum is indeed strong. Trading volume, user numbers, and protocol revenue are all rising. But don’t forget: Binance’s daily futures trading volume is on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. Hyperliquid is still just a fraction of that—like a brand-new hotpot shop that draws long lines for the first three days; that doesn’t mean it’ll be popular for three years.

There’s also a paradox here: the biggest selling point of decentralized derivatives is “no need for trust,” but what truly matters to large capital is depth and slippage. When a chain’s trading volume becomes large enough, the difference between it and a centralized exchange is, in practice, reduced to just a shell of “on-chain settlement.”

a16z is profiting from the growth of the track—if you jump in, you might be picking up valuation bubble rather than fundamentals. For the same asset, institutions wait three years for industry validation, while retail traders wait three days for price movement—totally different things.

Besides HYPE, what other decentralized derivatives projects are worth paying attention to? I’ve put together an observation shortlist—let’s chat in the group about which are real opportunities and which are just telling stories. #hype