【An 85% drop is not the bottom, it’s a test】
A couple of days ago, SUI’s Fear & Greed Index was 71. Market sentiment was leaning greedy, but what about the price? It only rose 13% in a week — this is hardly a bull market, it’s clearly just dragging its feet.
Did the 85% drawdown catch your eye? I thought the same way in 2017.
But a low valuation has never been a reason to buy; it only gives you a reason to research. Those two things are worlds apart.
What does a low valuation mean? It means the asset is attractive, but attractive does not mean it will go up. The real bottom is never just formed by falling. It only starts to rise after the market finds a new narrative, new capital, and new logic. Right now SUI is grinding between support and resistance, and volume still hasn’t picked up — that means the major players are still watching from the sidelines, and it’s not time for them to act yet.
So consolidation is actually the hardest phase to endure. It’s not rising that makes you lose money, and it’s not falling either; it’s this sideways movement that won’t go up or down that wears people down the most. You watch other coins move while your own position goes nowhere, and your hands start to itch. The itchier you get, the easier it is to make mistakes.
Right now I’m watching just one thing: after the consolidation ends, does it break upward on volume or downward on volume? Volume is the key — any breakout without volume is fake. Before the direction is clear, I’ll just hold my small position and do nothing.
Feeling impatient? Of course. But the outcome of the last time I acted on that impatience in 2017 is something I don’t want to go through again.
What’s your mindset right now? If you’re heavily positioned, are you preparing to cut back, or preparing to endure it?
A couple of days ago, SUI’s Fear & Greed Index was 71. Market sentiment was leaning greedy, but what about the price? It only rose 13% in a week — this is hardly a bull market, it’s clearly just dragging its feet.
Did the 85% drawdown catch your eye? I thought the same way in 2017.
But a low valuation has never been a reason to buy; it only gives you a reason to research. Those two things are worlds apart.
What does a low valuation mean? It means the asset is attractive, but attractive does not mean it will go up. The real bottom is never just formed by falling. It only starts to rise after the market finds a new narrative, new capital, and new logic. Right now SUI is grinding between support and resistance, and volume still hasn’t picked up — that means the major players are still watching from the sidelines, and it’s not time for them to act yet.
So consolidation is actually the hardest phase to endure. It’s not rising that makes you lose money, and it’s not falling either; it’s this sideways movement that won’t go up or down that wears people down the most. You watch other coins move while your own position goes nowhere, and your hands start to itch. The itchier you get, the easier it is to make mistakes.
Right now I’m watching just one thing: after the consolidation ends, does it break upward on volume or downward on volume? Volume is the key — any breakout without volume is fake. Before the direction is clear, I’ll just hold my small position and do nothing.
Feeling impatient? Of course. But the outcome of the last time I acted on that impatience in 2017 is something I don’t want to go through again.
What’s your mindset right now? If you’re heavily positioned, are you preparing to cut back, or preparing to endure it?