Senator Lummis tweeted a warning: if the Clarity Act does not pass this September, the next real opportunity may not come until 2030 — and the lost jobs, investment opportunities, and tax revenue in the meantime are very real costs. And how does the market see it? On Polymarket, the probability of it passing before the end of 2026 once reached as high as 74% in early May this year, but has now fallen to just 14 to 16% — the market has already fully priced in that it will not pass. This actually creates an asymmetry: if it really does not pass on September 15, the market may not move much, and there could even be a rebound after the dust settles; but if it unexpectedly does pass, that outcome is completely not priced in — $BTC a 20% single-day gain, and altcoins rising 30 to 50% in a single day, are all possible. September 15, keep your eyes on it.