$ARX I am leaning bearish and waiting on the sidelines; I won’t chase the move near 0.1568. Binance perpetuals are up about 18.0% over the past 24 hours, and in the most recent full hour it was pushed from 0.1473 to 0.1559. The 15-minute closes were successively 0.1511, 0.1519, and 0.1559, so price is indeed strong, but it is already close to the intraday high.
More importantly, open interest rose from about $3.56 million to $3.87 million, while funding is around +0.042%, meaning new positions and long-side payments are increasing at the same time. This can support the trend, but it also means pullbacks after crowding can happen faster. Solana main pool quotes are around 0.1538, close to the futures price; based on an estimated circulating supply of about 209 million and total supply of 1 billion, circulating market cap is about $32 million and FDV about $154 million, so there is still room for supply to amplify volatility.
I would only look for continuation if 15-minute volume expands and closes above 0.1568, and the 1-hour chart holds above that level; if the 1-hour closes below 0.1510, the breakout structure fails, and I won’t chase it in the middle of the range.#ARX #隐私计算 #Contract Watch