```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning Brief · September 7
The first Fed week of the Warsh era kicks off, with a hawk-vs-dove showdown: Bowman testimony + CCAR stress tests both land on the same day.
```
```
🎯 Today’s Must-Watch
1. 22:00 Bowman congressional testimony — reiterates bank capital/regulatory stance, hawkish and negative for risk assets
2. 04:00 next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — major banks’ CET1 expected at 11–12%, a threshold-breach shock to bank stocks
3. All day: delayed weekly report releases for 6/19 (7 reports including H.4.1) — temporary disturbance to U.S. Treasury and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · 7/28–29 maintained at ~95% · median terminal rate 3.8% (↑40bp, including 1 hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto View
SEP terminal rate revision upward + Warsh hawkish tilt = stronger DXY and Treasury yields, pressuring BTC/ETH upside.
Watch Bowman’s wording at 22:00; if he emphasizes "capital adequacy/anti-inflation," avoid chasing strength short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Details for reference ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-Year Probability Matrix (CME futures + SEP estimate)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ------- | ------ | -------- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑See Today’s Must-Watch |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress tests | 🔴 ↑See Today’s Must-Watch |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS senior loan officer survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still in effect)
· FOMC unanimously kept rates at 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot 2026 median terminal rate 3.8%, ↑40bp suggests one more hike this year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording adjusted: removed "inflation is gradually easing"
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate has rebounded to 7.18%; the market is repricing for another rate hike later this year in the Warsh era.
```
```
⏰ September 7 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (September 7 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $79,916.57 | -0.01% |
| ETH | $2,503.86 | — |
| SOL | $105.44 | — |
| BNB | $746.79 | — |
| DOGE | $0.09003 | — |
BTC 24h volume $746.2M
```
📰 Golden Goose Quant AI Morning Brief · September 7
The first Fed week of the Warsh era kicks off, with a hawk-vs-dove showdown: Bowman testimony + CCAR stress tests both land on the same day.
```
```
🎯 Today’s Must-Watch
1. 22:00 Bowman congressional testimony — reiterates bank capital/regulatory stance, hawkish and negative for risk assets
2. 04:00 next day CCAR/DFAST stress tests — major banks’ CET1 expected at 11–12%, a threshold-breach shock to bank stocks
3. All day: delayed weekly report releases for 6/19 (7 reports including H.4.1) — temporary disturbance to U.S. Treasury and dollar liquidity
```
```
📊 Key Numbers
Interest rate 3.50–3.75% · 7/28–29 maintained at ~95% · median terminal rate 3.8% (↑40bp, including 1 hike)
```
```
🪙 Crypto View
SEP terminal rate revision upward + Warsh hawkish tilt = stronger DXY and Treasury yields, pressuring BTC/ETH upside.
Watch Bowman’s wording at 22:00; if he emphasizes "capital adequacy/anti-inflation," avoid chasing strength short term and wait for a pullback.
```
```
—————————— Details for reference ——————————
```
```
💹 Full-Year Probability Matrix (CME futures + SEP estimate)
| FOMC | Cut 25 | Hold | Hike 25 |
| ----------- | ------- | ------ | -------- |
| 7/28–29 | 3% | **95%** | 2% |
| 9/15–16 | 2% | 50% | **48%** |
| 10/27–28 | 10% | 45% | **45%** |
| 12/8–9 | 20% | **55%** | 25% |
```
```
📋 This Week’s Schedule (Beijing Time)
| Time | Event | Level |
| ------------ | ------------------------------ | ---- |
| Monday 21:00 | Waller speech / Barr CDBA dialogue | 🟡 Medium |
| Monday 22:00 | Bowman testimony | 🔴 ↑See Today’s Must-Watch |
| Tuesday 04:00 | CCAR/DFAST stress tests | 🔴 ↑See Today’s Must-Watch |
| Thursday 02:00 | SCOOS senior loan officer survey | 🟡 Medium |
| 07/08 02:00 | FOMC June meeting minutes | 🔴 High |
```
```
🔴 Key points from the last decision (still in effect)
· FOMC unanimously kept rates at 3.50–3.75%
· Dot plot 2026 median terminal rate 3.8%, ↑40bp suggests one more hike this year
· PCE/GDP/inflation wording adjusted: removed "inflation is gradually easing"
```
```
ℹ️ The 30-year mortgage rate has rebounded to 7.18%; the market is repricing for another rate hike later this year in the Warsh era.
```
```
⏰ September 7 09:30 (CST) · Golden Goose Quant AI · For reference only
```
📊 Crypto Market Snapshot (September 7 09:30 CST)
```
| Coin | Price | 24h |
| ---- | ------- | ------ |
| BTC | $79,916.57 | -0.01% |
| ETH | $2,503.86 | — |
| SOL | $105.44 | — |
| BNB | $746.79 | — |
| DOGE | $0.09003 | — |
BTC 24h volume $746.2M
```