Brother Lu’s last article update was on June 7, and as of today, the hiatus has lasted exactly three months.

Friends who have followed Brother Lu for a long time should understand that since 2024, Brother Lu has chosen to stay away from the market for a period each year. This is because being too focused on the market often amplifies trading emotions, drifts away from an objective perspective, and leads to wrong judgments. But occasionally stepping out of the market and looking at it, and at life, from an onlooker’s perspective often leads to different answers.

This era is one of information-dense input, and it is also a period of economic downturn. Most people cope with anxiety by adding more through constant hustle, but Brother Lu believes that this is exactly when we should appropriately do subtraction. I personally learned this from Steve Jobs. Jobs was very ahead of his time too—he even bought the same clothes, chose to pass on many trivial matters, and focused on the things that truly needed thinking. There are too many things that need to be thought about, and the brain really can get overloaded. Memory will be pushed to the limit, and if you want to make the right choices, to some extent you have to give up those things that do not need your attention in the first place. The benefits of doing subtraction are obvious: we only need to make a few very important decisions. Life is like this, and trading is like this too.

Looking back.

In the first half of the year, you only need to do one thing: buy the dip when the market reaches the bottom. Most of the time, hold steady and don’t act. Lu Ge has a friend in the community. He rode a wave of a full-on drawdown during his cash-holding period, but before the rebound started, he couldn’t hold on and chose to liquidate. The underlying reason is confirmation bias. He viewed the market from a subjective angle that deviated from the objective reality. And because of those wrong judgments, he then had to maintain his position—so he continued to stay bearish on the market. Many times, traders don’t actually lose to the market; they lose to themselves, to human nature.

It’s good to meet again. I won’t say more. The reason I chose to resume updates is that recently the market has started gaining momentum. More friends in the community have been contacting Lu Ge to ask questions. Lu Ge doesn’t like replying to the same questions repeatedly, so I’m choosing to update in articles so that more friends who pay attention can see it.

Recently, friends have been asking Lu Ge whether this current bear market has already ended. To answer this question, we must first look at the macroeconomic picture. As everyone knows, 2025 to 2026 is basically a period of interest-rate cuts. Although in 2026 the rate cuts have not happened yet, the root reason is that the U.S.-Iran war has pushed up inflation in the United States. To a certain extent, this has disrupted the Federal Reserve’s usual cadence of rate cuts. However, judging by signs such as the rise in gold price, oil price, and the stock market, it is clear that an easing monetary policy will continue to be pushed forward. This is the general trend. No matter whether it’s AI, storage, or consumption-related price increases, as well as the rise in gold, they all indicate the same thing: in the future, traditional fiat currency will inevitably depreciate.

As for BTC, it began declining from the January 15, 2026 high of 97,900, officially entering the bear market cycle. As of now, this bear market is basically over. Lu Ge believes that on September 17, the interest-rate decision will most likely be maintained. Then from October to December, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions are highly likely to restart rate cuts and liquidity “water pouring.” At the same time, with the clear progress of the bill, the crypto market will likely enter a trend far bigger than people can imagine.

If there are good opportunities, don’t miss them—not only because it still looks like an early stage. Also, as discussed in the previous article, the essence of trading is trading on expectations of the future. Don’t wait until true FOMO sets in before you enter.