Up to 378.1 million SpaceX shares are about to become eligible for trading. The challenge facing SPCX is whether newly added trading demand can absorb the potential supply.
I think that before and after the lockup expiry, short-term supply pressure should be given greater weight, but it is still too early to conclude that prices will continue to weaken; there is not enough evidence yet.
TechStock² reported on September 5 that two batches of shares will see restrictions lifted or trading eligibility change on September 9 and 10, respectively, totaling the above cap.
This is still a future structural catalyst date involving existing shares; total share count will not automatically increase because of this restriction lift, and no actual outflow has yet been confirmed.
When you see such a large number, it is easy to jump straight to the conclusion that prices will come under pressure. That conclusion skips one step: after holders obtain trading eligibility, how many shares actually enter the market.
The report also noted that over the latest six trading days through September 4, the underlying stock rose a cumulative 4.6%, showing that prices still had support before then.
This performance cannot prove that the market has already digested the lockup expiry, nor can it be combined with future share outflows to create a divergence within the same time window.
One reasonable explanation is that demand is still able to absorb supply; another possibility is that actual outflows have not yet occurred, so the pressure has not been tested.
What the lockup expiry changes first is the range of shares that can participate in trading. If holders sell in a concentrated manner, the market will need more buying support to maintain the original price level.
Once the new absorption of supply fails to keep up, the underlying stock price may come under pressure, and through price references and hedging demand, affect the pricing and volatility of SPCX-related derivatives.
This transmission path has conditions attached; one cannot directly convert the number of unlocked shares into the fund flows that will appear in the contract market.
As of 21:34 Beijing time on September 6, the SPCXUSDT stock-linked perpetual contract was quoted at 150.8 USDT, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours.
This weekend contract snapshot only shows the product's performance; it cannot be used to prove that the underlying stock has already reacted to the lockup expiry, nor is it enough to calculate a tradable cross-market premium.
I am more focused on the first few trading days after the unlock: when volume expands, does the price become harder to sustain, and then continue to weaken?
A rise in trading volume cuts both ways: it may accompany holder selling, or it may mean new demand is absorbing supply. Volume alone cannot identify the seller.
If actual outflows are limited, or if volume rises significantly while prices remain supported, then the view that supply pressure is dominating the short-term trend should be withdrawn.
If share outflows increase, prices keep weakening, and rebound support diminishes, that would better support the interpretation that the pressure is being realized.
This calendar gives the upper bound of potential supply; how much pressure prices ultimately bear will be answered by holders' actions together with absorbing demand.
$SPCX #US stock anomaly
I think that before and after the lockup expiry, short-term supply pressure should be given greater weight, but it is still too early to conclude that prices will continue to weaken; there is not enough evidence yet.
TechStock² reported on September 5 that two batches of shares will see restrictions lifted or trading eligibility change on September 9 and 10, respectively, totaling the above cap.
This is still a future structural catalyst date involving existing shares; total share count will not automatically increase because of this restriction lift, and no actual outflow has yet been confirmed.
When you see such a large number, it is easy to jump straight to the conclusion that prices will come under pressure. That conclusion skips one step: after holders obtain trading eligibility, how many shares actually enter the market.
The report also noted that over the latest six trading days through September 4, the underlying stock rose a cumulative 4.6%, showing that prices still had support before then.
This performance cannot prove that the market has already digested the lockup expiry, nor can it be combined with future share outflows to create a divergence within the same time window.
One reasonable explanation is that demand is still able to absorb supply; another possibility is that actual outflows have not yet occurred, so the pressure has not been tested.
What the lockup expiry changes first is the range of shares that can participate in trading. If holders sell in a concentrated manner, the market will need more buying support to maintain the original price level.
Once the new absorption of supply fails to keep up, the underlying stock price may come under pressure, and through price references and hedging demand, affect the pricing and volatility of SPCX-related derivatives.
This transmission path has conditions attached; one cannot directly convert the number of unlocked shares into the fund flows that will appear in the contract market.
As of 21:34 Beijing time on September 6, the SPCXUSDT stock-linked perpetual contract was quoted at 150.8 USDT, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours.
This weekend contract snapshot only shows the product's performance; it cannot be used to prove that the underlying stock has already reacted to the lockup expiry, nor is it enough to calculate a tradable cross-market premium.
I am more focused on the first few trading days after the unlock: when volume expands, does the price become harder to sustain, and then continue to weaken?
A rise in trading volume cuts both ways: it may accompany holder selling, or it may mean new demand is absorbing supply. Volume alone cannot identify the seller.
If actual outflows are limited, or if volume rises significantly while prices remain supported, then the view that supply pressure is dominating the short-term trend should be withdrawn.
If share outflows increase, prices keep weakening, and rebound support diminishes, that would better support the interpretation that the pressure is being realized.
This calendar gives the upper bound of potential supply; how much pressure prices ultimately bear will be answered by holders' actions together with absorbing demand.
$SPCX #US stock anomaly
