US debt is already above 40$ trn, 10y ~4.78%, and $BTC is holding around 80k. Money rates matter more than the ETF flow story. Numbers. Gross debt crossed 40$ trn in Aug. Yahoo ^TNX close on Sep 4: 4.784% (high since Nov 2023 ~4.81%). CBO: net interest FY26 ~1$ trn (~3,18$ bn/day; Oct–Jul 963$ bn). Deficit FY26 ~2,1$ trn / ~5.8% of GDP. Bessent buybacks ≥4$ bn per operation. FedWatch on the 16th: hike ~51% / hold ~49% with range 3.50–3.75%. Yahoo $BTC ~79,940$. My take: ETF inflows are buying weakness, while the long end of the curve is the tax on risk. If 10y holds 4.8%+ before CPI on Sep 11, $BTC is more likely to test 78k than 82k. Buybacks smooth the auction, but they do not cancel the fiscal overhang. Question: for $BTC, is the CPI print on Sep 11 more important, or whether 10y stays below 4.8% until the FOMC?